Wyndham Championship: Model Projections
Win, Top 5, and Top 10 probabilities from the BetTheRent Monte Carlo model (100,000 simulations). Updated as new data becomes available.
Signature Event · Elevated field · Limited entries
Win Probability — Full Field
| Rank | Player | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Koivun | 7.1% | 23.5% | 36.2% |
| 2 | Alex Fitzpatrick | 4.0% | 13.8% | 22.4% |
| 3 | Hideki Matsuyama | 3.7% | 13.8% | 22.7% |
| 4 | Eric Cole | 3.4% | 10.7% | 17.0% |
| 5 | Justin Thomas | 3.1% | 12.4% | 21.3% |
| 6 | Cameron Young | 2.9% | 11.0% | 18.6% |
| 7 | Matt McCarty | 2.6% | 8.7% | 14.1% |
| 8 | Brooks Koepka | 2.4% | 9.9% | 17.1% |
| 9 | Brian Harman | 2.0% | 7.9% | 13.8% |
| 10 | Sepp Straka | 1.9% | 7.6% | 13.4% |
| 11 | Ben Griffin | 1.7% | 9.0% | 17.5% |
| 12 | Jesper Svensson | 1.7% | 6.0% | 10.0% |
| 13 | Maverick McNealy | 1.5% | 7.5% | 14.2% |
| 14 | Keegan Bradley | 1.5% | 7.1% | 13.4% |
| 15 | Emiliano Grillo | 1.5% | 6.2% | 11.4% |
| 16 | Tony Finau | 1.4% | 6.8% | 12.6% |
| 17 | Ben James | 1.4% | 6.1% | 11.0% |
| 18 | Alex Smalley | 1.3% | 6.2% | 11.4% |
| 19 | Sungjae Im | 1.3% | 6.3% | 11.9% |
| 20 | Stephan Jaeger | 1.3% | 5.6% | 10.3% |
| 21 | Blades Brown | 1.3% | 8.2% | 17.3% |
| 22 | Jason Day | 1.2% | 5.8% | 10.9% |
| 23 | Bud Cauley | 1.2% | 6.1% | 11.5% |
| 24 | Ryo Hisatsune | 1.1% | 5.0% | 9.8% |
| 25 | Billy Horschel | 1.1% | 5.5% | 10.5% |
| 26 | Lucas Glover | 1.1% | 4.9% | 9.2% |
| 27 | Harry Hall | 1.1% | 5.6% | 11.2% |
| 28 | Alex Noren | 1.1% | 6.0% | 12.4% |
| 29 | Ryan Gerard | 1.0% | 5.6% | 11.4% |
| 30 | Mac Meissner | 1.0% | 5.7% | 11.6% |
Showing the top 30 of 147 players by win probability. Full field on the Projections page.