U.S. Open: Model Projections
Projections generated by the BetTheRent Monte Carlo model. Updated as new data becomes available.
Win Probability — Full Field
| Rank | Player | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Make Cut% | Exp. Score | CFS Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | 5.8% | 21.7% | 34.8% | 80.9% | +11.2 | 92 |
| 2 | Russell Henley | 4.1% | 17.8% | 30.5% | 80.4% | +11.7 | 39 |
| 3 | Wyndham Clark | 3.4% | 11.5% | 18.6% | 61.6% | +13.4 | 77 |
| 4 | Tommy Fleetwood | 3.3% | 13.7% | 24.3% | 74.1% | +12.4 | 19 |
| 5 | Matt Fitzpatrick | 2.7% | 12.9% | 23.5% | 75.4% | +12.4 | 9 |
| 6 | Si Woo Kim | 2.6% | 10.4% | 18.2% | 65.4% | +13.3 | 120 |
| 7 | Rickie Fowler | 2.3% | 7.9% | 13.1% | 53.5% | +14.5 | 16 |
| 8 | Aaron Rai | 2.1% | 10.2% | 19.3% | 70.9% | +13.0 | 103 |
| 9 | J.J. Spaun | 2.1% | 9.2% | 16.4% | 63.5% | +13.5 | 83 |
| 10 | Akshay Bhatia | 2.0% | 7.7% | 13.4% | 56.1% | +14.2 | 10 |
| 11 | Alex Noren | 2.0% | 9.1% | 16.8% | 65.8% | +13.4 | 27 |
| 12 | Alex Smalley | 2.0% | 8.1% | 14.5% | 59.3% | +13.9 | 91 |
| 13 | Jacob Bridgeman | 1.9% | 7.4% | 12.9% | 55.6% | +14.3 | 5 |
| 14 | Patrick Cantlay | 1.8% | 8.6% | 16.0% | 64.5% | +13.5 | 97 |
| 15 | Jackson Suber | 1.7% | 6.5% | 11.1% | 50.7% | +14.8 | 37 |
| 16 | Andrew Putnam | 1.7% | 10.5% | 21.3% | 77.4% | +12.6 | 3 |
| 17 | Matt McCarty | 1.7% | 6.5% | 11.4% | 52.1% | +14.6 | 32 |
| 18 | Cameron Young | 1.7% | 7.6% | 14.1% | 60.6% | +13.9 | 111 |
| 19 | Nico Echavarria | 1.7% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 47.6% | +15.2 | 20 |
| 20 | Viktor Hovland | 1.4% | 6.6% | 12.6% | 59.6% | +14.0 | 31 |
| 21 | Ludvig Aberg | 1.3% | 6.7% | 12.8% | 61.1% | +13.9 | 90 |
| 22 | Sepp Straka | 1.3% | 5.5% | 9.8% | 50.5% | +14.8 | 23 |
| 23 | Collin Morikawa | 1.3% | 6.8% | 13.3% | 62.8% | +13.8 | 75 |
| 24 | Adam Scott | 1.1% | 5.2% | 9.7% | 51.2% | +14.8 | 105 |
| 25 | Emiliano Grillo | 1.1% | 5.1% | 9.3% | 50.3% | +14.8 | 45 |
| 26 | Jake Knapp | 1.1% | 5.5% | 10.5% | 55.1% | +14.4 | 40 |
| 27 | Nick Taylor | 1.1% | 5.3% | 9.9% | 53.8% | +14.6 | 38 |
| 28 | Brian Harman | 1.1% | 5.0% | 9.4% | 51.1% | +14.7 | 28 |
| 29 | Ryan Gerard | 1.1% | 5.7% | 11.3% | 58.0% | +14.2 | 11 |
| 30 | Kurt Kitayama | 1.0% | 4.7% | 8.9% | 50.8% | +14.8 | 110 |
Showing the top 30 of 132 players by win probability. Full field on the Projections page.
Course Fit Rankings
| CFS Rank | Player | CFS Score | Win% | Top 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taylor Montgomery | 100 | 0.6% | 8.8% |
| 2 | Denny McCarthy | 100 | — | — |
| 3 | Brooks Koepka | 99 | 1.0% | 9.8% |
| 4 | Nick Dunlap | 99 | — | — |
| 5 | Phil Mickelson | 99 | — | — |
| 6 | Eric Cole | 98 | — | — |
| 7 | Andrew Putnam | 98 | 1.7% | 21.3% |
| 8 | Victor Perez | 98 | — | — |
| 9 | Kaito Onishi | 97 | 0.1% | 1.6% |
| 10 | Brian Campbell | 97 | — | — |
| 11 | Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 96 | — | — |
| 12 | Peter Malnati | 96 | — | — |
| 13 | Jacob Bridgeman | 96 | 1.9% | 12.9% |
| 14 | Ben Silverman | 95 | 0.3% | 6.7% |
| 15 | Daniel Berger | 95 | 0.7% | 6.6% |
| 16 | Billy Horschel | 95 | 0.3% | 4.7% |
| 17 | Matt Fitzpatrick | 94 | 2.7% | 23.5% |
| 18 | Matt Kuchar | 94 | — | — |
| 19 | Matthieu Pavon | 94 | — | — |
| 20 | Akshay Bhatia | 93 | 2.0% | 13.4% |