RBC Canadian Open: Model Projections
Projections generated by the BetTheRent Monte Carlo model. Updated as new data becomes available.
Win Probability — Full Field
| Rank | Player | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Make Cut% | Exp. Score | CFS Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wyndham Clark | 10.6% | 28.3% | 39.9% | 79.6% | -8.8 | 98 |
| 2 | Sam Burns | 10.0% | 31.9% | 46.9% | 87.8% | -10.4 | 4 |
| 3 | Kristoffer Reitan | 5.1% | 17.9% | 28.3% | 74.8% | -6.7 | 97 |
| 4 | Shane Lowry | 4.6% | 17.5% | 28.4% | 76.4% | -7.0 | 1 |
| 5 | Keith Mitchell | 4.4% | 17.4% | 28.4% | 77.1% | -7.1 | 78 |
| 6 | Jesper Svensson | 3.9% | 12.8% | 20.0% | 63.4% | -4.2 | 88 |
| 7 | Tommy Fleetwood | 3.3% | 15.1% | 26.5% | 78.1% | -6.9 | 82 |
| 8 | Brooks Koepka | 3.3% | 14.3% | 24.9% | 76.2% | -6.6 | 77 |
| 9 | Jackson Suber | 2.9% | 10.2% | 16.7% | 60.6% | -3.4 | 2 |
| 10 | Kevin Yu | 1.8% | 9.0% | 16.9% | 68.5% | -4.7 | 95 |
| 11 | Collin Morikawa | 1.8% | 9.2% | 17.4% | 70.6% | -5.0 | 53 |
| 12 | Ryan Fox | 1.8% | 10.0% | 19.4% | 75.0% | -5.8 | 7 |
| 13 | Matt Fitzpatrick | 1.6% | 9.7% | 19.2% | 75.3% | -5.9 | 102 |
| 14 | Thorbjorn Olesen | 1.6% | 6.8% | 12.2% | 57.0% | -2.5 | 16 |
| 15 | Alex Fitzpatrick | 1.5% | 7.6% | 14.4% | 64.3% | -3.9 | 47 |
| 16 | Robert MacIntyre | 1.3% | 6.7% | 12.8% | 62.0% | -3.4 | 109 |
| 17 | Steven Fisk | 1.2% | 7.1% | 14.7% | 69.8% | -4.7 | 87 |
| 18 | Ben Silverman | 1.1% | 6.4% | 13.0% | 66.9% | -4.1 | 61 |
| 19 | Max Greyserman | 1.1% | 5.0% | 9.4% | 53.1% | -1.6 | 80 |
| 20 | Viktor Hovland | 1.1% | 6.0% | 12.2% | 63.9% | -3.6 | 40 |
| 21 | Aldrich Potgieter | 1.1% | 4.7% | 8.5% | 49.8% | -1.0 | 83 |
| 22 | Kevin Roy | 1.0% | 5.2% | 10.1% | 56.7% | -2.3 | 35 |
| 23 | Michael Thorbjornsen | 1.0% | 4.6% | 8.6% | 51.1% | -1.2 | 128 |
| 24 | Jordan Smith | 1.0% | 5.5% | 10.8% | 59.1% | -2.7 | 99 |
| 25 | Eric Cole | 1.0% | 6.4% | 13.5% | 69.0% | -4.5 | 60 |
| 26 | Nicolai Hojgaard | 1.0% | 5.4% | 10.8% | 59.6% | -2.8 | 108 |
| 27 | Zach Bauchou | 0.9% | 5.7% | 11.8% | 65.3% | -3.8 | 50 |
| 28 | Nick Taylor | 0.9% | 5.7% | 11.8% | 65.6% | -3.8 | 21 |
| 29 | Tony Finau | 0.9% | 4.8% | 9.4% | 56.6% | -2.2 | 124 |
| 30 | Aaron Rai | 0.9% | 6.0% | 12.6% | 66.9% | -4.1 | 52 |
Showing the top 30 of 139 players by win probability. Full field on the Projections page.
Course Fit Rankings
| CFS Rank | Player | CFS Score | Win% | Top 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taylor Montgomery | 100 | — | — |
| 2 | Shane Lowry | 100 | 4.6% | 28.4% |
| 3 | Victor Perez | 99 | — | — |
| 4 | Jackson Suber | 99 | 2.9% | 16.7% |
| 5 | Lanto Griffin | 98 | 0.3% | 6.7% |
| 6 | Sam Burns | 98 | 10.0% | 46.9% |
| 7 | Paul Peterson | 97 | 0.0% | 1.7% |
| 8 | Richard Lee | 97 | — | — |
| 9 | Brice Garnett | 96 | 0.3% | 4.4% |
| 10 | Brandt Snedeker | 96 | — | — |
| 11 | John Pak | 95 | — | — |
| 12 | Cristobal Del Solar | 95 | — | — |
| 13 | Matteo Manassero | 94 | — | — |
| 14 | Ryan Fox | 94 | 1.8% | 19.4% |
| 15 | Kaito Onishi | 93 | — | — |
| 16 | Emiliano Grillo | 93 | 0.7% | 7.7% |
| 17 | Justin Rose | 92 | 0.9% | 11.6% |
| 18 | Matt McCarty | 92 | — | — |
| 19 | Austin Eckroat | 92 | 0.5% | 7.6% |
| 20 | Ludvig Aberg | 91 | — | — |