BMW Championship: Model Projections
Win, Top 5, and Top 10 probabilities from the BetTheRent Monte Carlo model (100,000 simulations). Updated as new data becomes available.
Signature Event · Elevated field · Limited entries
Win Probability — Full Field
| Rank | Player | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | 23.6% | 56.7% | 74.1% |
| 2 | Rory McIlroy | 9.8% | 34.0% | 52.1% |
| 3 | Xander Schauffele | 3.9% | 24.1% | 46.1% |
| 4 | Viktor Hovland | 3.7% | 16.7% | 30.3% |
| 5 | Sam Burns | 3.2% | 15.6% | 29.1% |
| 6 | Ludvig Aberg | 3.2% | 16.5% | 31.3% |
| 7 | Patrick Cantlay | 3.1% | 17.2% | 33.0% |
| 8 | Collin Morikawa | 3.0% | 16.4% | 31.8% |
| 9 | Hideki Matsuyama | 2.2% | 12.4% | 25.0% |
| 10 | Akshay Bhatia | 2.1% | 10.4% | 19.6% |
| 11 | Russell Henley | 2.0% | 12.1% | 25.0% |
| 12 | Cameron Young | 1.9% | 10.7% | 21.9% |
| 13 | Eric Cole | 1.8% | 8.5% | 16.6% |
| 14 | Tommy Fleetwood | 1.8% | 13.7% | 30.4% |
| 15 | Justin Thomas | 1.8% | 11.5% | 24.3% |
| 16 | Adam Scott | 1.7% | 10.0% | 20.6% |
| 17 | Matt Fitzpatrick | 1.6% | 10.7% | 23.5% |
| 18 | Michael Brennan | 1.6% | 9.2% | 19.1% |
| 19 | Rickie Fowler | 1.5% | 8.1% | 16.2% |
| 20 | Alex Fitzpatrick | 1.5% | 8.7% | 17.9% |
| 21 | Gary Woodland | 1.4% | 7.8% | 15.8% |
| 22 | Nicolai Hojgaard | 1.3% | 8.3% | 17.9% |
| 23 | Matt McCarty | 1.3% | 6.5% | 13.3% |
| 24 | Wyndham Clark | 1.3% | 7.9% | 17.0% |
| 25 | Robert MacIntyre | 1.2% | 7.9% | 17.7% |
| 26 | Si Woo Kim | 1.2% | 8.0% | 18.1% |
| 27 | Chris Gotterup | 1.2% | 7.9% | 17.6% |
| 28 | Kurt Kitayama | 1.1% | 7.6% | 17.0% |
| 29 | Justin Rose | 1.1% | 7.1% | 15.9% |
| 30 | Sepp Straka | 1.0% | 6.2% | 13.6% |
Showing the top 30 of 50 players by win probability. Full field on the Projections page.