Texas Children’s Houston Open 2026: Thursday Predictions, Value Plays, and Matchup Edges

The Children’s Houston Open 2026 tees off Thursday at Memorial Park Municipal Golf Course, and the field is stacked with players chasing one of the most demanding par-70 layouts on the PGA Tour. Because of this, Tom Doak’s restored course plays 7,475 yards across Bermuda grass fairways, five par 3s, and multi-tiered greens with steep runoff areas that punish missed approaches. Power matters here. But the player who controls his irons into those greens will separate himself from the field. Here is what the numbers say heading into Round 1.

As we covered in our tournament preview, Memorial Park rewards ball-strikers who can combine length off the tee with precision iron play. The edge we flagged in Wednesday’s market analysis points to several players priced too long given their course fit scores.

Favorites at the Children’s Houston Open 2026

How to read these cards:

• SG: Approach — Strokes Gained on iron shots into greens. This is the most important stat at Memorial Park. Positive numbers mean better than the average PGA Tour pro.
• SG: Off the Tee — Strokes Gained on tee shots. Measures distance and accuracy combined.
• SG: Around the Green — Strokes Gained chipping and pitching near the green. Also called scrambling.
• SG: Putting — Strokes Gained on the putting surface compared to field average.
• Course Fit — How well a player’s skill set matches what Memorial Park demands. Positive = advantage.
• Model Projection — Projected strokes above or below field average this week.
• Effective Odds — What a win probability translates to in betting odds.

Min Woo Lee

Lee tees off at 1:42 p.m. Beyond that, ET alongside Tony Finau and Adam Scott. He holds a 6.0% win probability (effective +1564) and a 31.8% chance to finish top 10 (effective +214) — both among the strongest numbers in the field. His recent form sits at +0.058, ranking 31st in the field, which means he is performing slightly above average across his last several starts. Lee set the aggregate scoring record at this event in 2025 with a 260, which tells you his game translates directly to what Memorial Park demands.

Chris Gotterup

Gotterup plays at 8:53 a.m. ET with Jason Day and Sam Burns. His 3.6% win probability (effective +2688) and 23.2% top-10 probability (effective +331) reflect a model that still believes in his course fit despite recent form sitting at -0.122, which ranks 115th in the field. That recent form number means he has been losing ground to the average Tour pro lately. However, Memorial Park’s demand for power combined with precision is exactly where Gotterup profiles best, and the model projects him to outperform that recent dip.

Nicolai Hojgaard

Hojgaard does not have a featured tee time listed in this week’s groupings. Because of this, His 3.3% win probability (effective +2917) comes with a 22.2% top-10 probability (effective +350). His recent form of +0.056 ranks 34th in the field — meaning he is outperforming the average Tour pro heading into this week. That positive momentum, combined with a course profile that rewards ball-strikers, gives Hojgaard a legitimate path to contention on Sunday.

Value Plays at the Texas Children’s Houston Open 2026

These players are priced between +3000 and +5000. The market gives each of them a long shot. The model says the gap between their price and their actual probability is where the value lives.

Sam Burns

At +3114, the market gives Burns roughly a 1-in-32 shot to win. His recent form sits at -0.109, ranking 109th in the field — that means he has been losing ground to the average Tour pro in recent weeks. But his 3.1% win probability (effective +3114) and 21.1% top-10 probability (effective +373) suggest the model sees more in his underlying numbers than the recent form line shows. Burns plays the 8:53 a.m. ET group with Chris Gotterup and Jason Day. If his approach play returns to form this week, this course sets up well for his style.

Kurt Kitayama

At +3208, Kitayama is priced at roughly 1-in-33 odds. His recent form of -0.105 ranks 107th in the field, which means he has been slightly below the average Tour pro lately. However, his 3.0% win probability (effective +3208) and 21.3% top-10 probability (effective +369) reflect a course fit that the model rates positively. Memorial Park’s demand for long, precise iron play into firm greens fits Kitayama’s ball-striking profile. He needs his approach game to click for this price to pay off.

Ryan Gerard

At +3565, Gerard is priced at roughly 1-in-36 odds. His recent form of -0.108 ranks 108th in the field — meaning he has been losing strokes to the field average in recent starts. Despite that, his 2.7% win probability (effective +3565) and 20.8% top-10 probability (effective +381) point to a course fit the model finds favorable. Gerard’s winning scenario involves turning his approach play around early. If he gains strokes on irons — the biggest differentiator at Memorial Park — this price looks generous.

Longshots Worth Watching

These players are priced at 100 to 1 or longer. Most longshots do not win. But the specific reasons below explain why each one has a path.

Michael Brennan

At 101 to 1, Brennan is a true longshot. His recent form sits at -0.071, ranking 97th in the field — meaning he has been losing a small number of strokes to the average Tour pro. But his 10.1% top-10 probability (effective +891) is meaningful for a player at this price. His make cut probability of 61.7% suggests the model gives him a real chance to play the weekend. Brennan’s winning scenario at this course is simple: gain strokes on approach and avoid bogeys. Even one hot round on Thursday could move the needle significantly.

Ryan Fox

At 108 to 1, Fox is priced for a very long shot. His recent form of -0.097 ranks 103rd in the field, which means he has been slightly below the average Tour pro lately. However, his 10.0% top-10 probability (effective +905) and 63.3% cut probability show the model sees him as a weekend player at a realistic rate. Fox has the length to handle Memorial Park’s 7,475-yard layout. His winning scenario requires sharp iron play to heat up early — and if it does, the market has not priced that possibility correctly at 108 to 1.

Matchup Edges at the Children’s Houston Open 2026

Each matchup below shows the book price and the model’s fair price. When the book price is longer than fair odds, that player is underpriced. When it is shorter, they are overpriced.

The model gives Lee a 7.8% edge in this matchup. Lee’s recent form ranks 31st in the field, while Koepka has struggled to generate the iron play precision that Memorial Park demands. At -108, Lee is significantly underpriced against fair odds of -148. Take Lee.

The model gives Dumont De Chassart a 6.3% edge here. At -100 — essentially even money — the book is pricing this as a coin flip. The model says Dumont De Chassart should be a -129 favorite. That gap between -100 and -129 is where the value sits.

This is the biggest pricing discrepancy on the board. The model gives Lowry a 5.7% edge and prices him as a -114 favorite. The book has him as a +110 underdog. Nevertheless, Lowry plays the 8:24 a.m. ET group with Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark. His approach play profile fits what Memorial Park punishes the most when it goes wrong — and the model believes Lowry controls irons better than Day this week.

The model gives Gerard a 5.0% edge here. The book prices Griffin as the favorite at -120, but the model says this should be nearly even — Gerard at -102. Griffin plays the 9:04 a.m. Beyond that, ET group. Gerard’s course fit score is the reason: the model projects him to outperform Griffin specifically on approach play this week.

The model gives Hall a 5.0% edge over Lowry in this specific matchup. Notably, Note that this is a different pairing than the Lowry-Day matchup above. The book prices Lowry as the -118 favorite, but the model says Hall should be a -104 favorite. Hall’s course fit ranks favorably against Lowry in this head-to-head.

The model gives Cole a 4.9% edge. Zalatoris is a -133 favorite at the book, but the model says he should only be -109. Cole at +133 is priced more than 24 cents richer than fair value. Also, That difference matters over a long season of matchup betting.

The model gives Smalley a 4.0% edge. Scott is a -128 favorite here, but the model prices him at only -109. Smalley also appears in the top-10 market table below, where his 13.0% top-10 probability (effective +672) reflects strong underlying course fit numbers.

The model gives Smith a 3.8% edge. Jaeger plays the 9:04 a.m. ET group. The book prices Smith as a +116 underdog, but the model says this should be a near-even matchup with Smith as a slight -100 favorite. In addition, Jaeger’s recent approach play numbers do not justify the -116 price.

The model gives Gotterup a 3.8% edge. Fowler plays the 8:24 a.m. Meanwhile, ET group. Gotterup is +110 here, but the model prices him as a -106 favorite. Fowler’s game has not translated to the long, demanding ball-striking tests that Memorial Park provides at this price.

The model gives Knapp a 3.8% edge. Knapp plays the 1:53 p.m. ET group with Brooks Koepka and Michael Thorbjornsen. At +102, Knapp is priced as a near-even underdog. The model says he should be -114. His approach play profile at Memorial Park is the specific reason the model favors him here.

FRL Market: First-Round Leader at the Texas Children’s Houston Open 2026

The first-round leader market pays out if a player leads after 18 holes on Thursday. Here are the top 15 players by win probability.

Top 5 and Top 10 Markets: Houston Open 2026

The top-5 market pays out if the player finishes in the top 5 at the end of the tournament.

The top-10 market pays out if the player finishes in the top 10 at the end of the tournament.

Round 1 of the Children’s Houston Open 2026 is set for Thursday morning. Memorial Park will test every player’s iron game from the jump. The matchup edges and value plays above give you the clearest picture of where the market is mispriced. For official tee times and starting holes, visit the PGA Tour tee times page. For the underlying model probabilities driving these projections, check DataGolf.