Houston’s Toughest Test: Everything You Need to Know Before the Children’s Houston Open 2026
The Children’s Houston Open 2026 tees off Thursday at Memorial Park Golf Course, and the field of 135 players is loaded with international talent, hungry young guns, and a handful of veterans chasing FedEx Cup points. Min Woo Lee enters as the clear favorite after a strong run of form. The numbers say this week sets up as one of the more wide-open events on the PGA Tour schedule this spring.
Memorial Park is a tree-lined, demanding municipal course in the heart of Houston. It rewards players who hit their irons close and punishes anyone who sprays the ball. Expect the winner to post something around 15-under for the week, though firm conditions could push that number lower.
Children’s Houston Open 2026: Outright Odds Board
Here is where the market stands heading into Thursday’s first round.
| Player | Win Odds | Market Implied % | DG Win Prob % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lee, Min Woo | +1559 | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Hojgaard, Nicolai | +2875 | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| Gotterup, Chris | +2876 | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| Knapp, Jake | +3097 | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| Burns, Sam | +3189 | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Kitayama, Kurt | +3213 | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Gerard, Ryan | +3552 | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| Fowler, Rickie | +3629 | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| Penge, Marco | +3697 | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| Griffin, Ben | +4096 | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| Mitchell, Keith | +4491 | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| Thorbjornsen, Michael | +4766 | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| Clark, Wyndham | +4814 | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Theegala, Sahith | +4846 | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Stevens, Sam | +5440 | 1.8% | 1.8% |
DG = DataGolf.com — an independent analytics company that builds statistical projection models for professional golf.
The market and DataGolf are in almost perfect agreement this week. There is no single player the market is dramatically overvaluing or undervaluing at the top of the board. That tells you the field is genuinely competitive and no obvious consensus pick has emerged.
Form Watch: Top 5 by Projected Win Probability
| Player | Win Prob | Top 10 Prob |
|---|---|---|
| Lee, Min Woo | 6.0% | 32.3% |
| Hojgaard, Nicolai | 3.4% | 22.5% |
| Gotterup, Chris | 3.4% | 23.1% |
| Knapp, Jake | 3.1% | 21.5% |
| Burns, Sam | 3.0% | 21.1% |
These figures are DataGolf’s pre-tournament win projections, not rolling form ratings — rolling form ratings will be added in a future version.
Breaking Down the Top Five
Min Woo Lee enters as the clear favorite at +1559. His Top 10 probability sits at 32.3%, meaning DataGolf expects him to contend on nearly one in three scenarios. That is a significant edge over the rest of the field.
Nicolai Hojgaard checks in at +2875. His Top 10 probability of 22.5% makes him one of the more reliable contenders in this group. However, Hojgaard’s results can swing, so he is not a lock to be there Sunday afternoon.
Chris Gotterup matches Hojgaard at 3.4% win probability. Notably, his Top 10 probability of 23.1% is actually slightly higher than Hojgaard’s. That is a small but interesting gap worth watching as the week unfolds.
Jake Knapp comes in at +3097. He has shown flashes of brilliance on the PGA Tour this season. Still, his win probability of 3.1% reflects a player the market views as a strong contender but not yet a proven closer.
Sam Burns rounds out the top five at 3.0%. Burns is a Houston-area product who has played Memorial Park many times. Familiarity with a course does not always translate directly into results, but it rarely hurts either.
One Market Observation Worth Noting
The matchup board is where things get interesting this week. DataGolf identifies two matchups where the sportsbook price and the fair price differ by five percentage points or more.
| Player | Opponent | Book | Odds | DG Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koepka, Brooks | Lee, Min Woo | draftkings | +108 | +150 | 8.1% |
| Day, Jason | Lowry, Shane | draftkings | -110 | +113 | 5.5% |
The Koepka-Lee matchup stands out immediately. DraftKings has Koepka at +108 — essentially a coin flip against Lee. DataGolf’s fair price, however, puts Koepka at +150. That is an 8.1 percentage point gap. In plain terms, the sportsbook is pricing Koepka as a near-even match against the tournament favorite. For example, DataGolf sees Lee as notably more likely to win that head-to-head.
Meanwhile, the Day-Lowry matchup tells a similar story. DraftKings has Jason Day priced at -110, meaning you would need to risk $110 to win $100. DataGolf’s fair price flips that entirely, putting Day at +113. That 5.5-point gap suggests the market may be underestimating Lowry in this pairing. As always, these are observations — not instructions. The data identifies the gap. What you do with it is up to you.
What to Watch This Week at the Children’s Houston Open 2026
One storyline to watch: can another international player follow Lee’s blueprint and make Memorial Park their own? International players have been a dominant force at this event in recent years. Additionally, keep an eye on Chris Gotterup — his 23.1% Top 10 probability is the highest of any player outside the favorite, and he has the iron play to thrive on a course that demands precision into greens. SG: Approach — that means strokes gained on iron shots into the green, where positive numbers mean better than the average tour pro — will almost certainly separate the contenders from the pretenders by Sunday. Don’t miss our weekly market analysis every Wednesday for updated odds movement, and check our Thursday predictions before the first tee shot goes off.
Check the full schedule at PGA Tour and explore the numbers at DataGolf.
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