TOUR Championship: Model Projections
Win, Top 5, and Top 10 probabilities from the BetTheRent Monte Carlo model (100,000 simulations). Updated as new data becomes available.
Signature Event · Elevated field · Limited entries
Win Probability — Full Field
| Rank | Player | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | 27.0% | 64.2% | 82.3% |
| 2 | Rory McIlroy | 12.6% | 42.1% | 63.7% |
| 3 | Xander Schauffele | 4.8% | 32.2% | 60.8% |
| 4 | Viktor Hovland | 4.3% | 21.5% | 40.6% |
| 5 | Patrick Cantlay | 3.9% | 23.7% | 47.0% |
| 6 | Sam Burns | 3.9% | 20.6% | 40.0% |
| 7 | Collin Morikawa | 3.8% | 23.0% | 45.5% |
| 8 | Ludvig Aberg | 3.8% | 21.8% | 42.5% |
| 9 | Robert MacIntyre | 3.4% | 15.6% | 29.7% |
| 10 | Tommy Fleetwood | 2.7% | 19.9% | 43.4% |
| 11 | Hideki Matsuyama | 2.7% | 16.9% | 35.3% |
| 12 | Russell Henley | 2.4% | 17.0% | 37.3% |
| 13 | Cameron Young | 2.3% | 14.3% | 30.9% |
| 14 | Akshay Bhatia | 2.3% | 13.1% | 27.1% |
| 15 | Matt Fitzpatrick | 2.1% | 15.4% | 35.1% |
| 16 | Gary Woodland | 2.1% | 11.5% | 24.2% |
| 17 | Wyndham Clark | 2.0% | 12.5% | 26.9% |
| 18 | Adam Scott | 1.8% | 12.8% | 29.1% |
| 19 | Chris Gotterup | 1.6% | 11.6% | 27.1% |
| 20 | Justin Rose | 1.5% | 10.7% | 25.2% |
| 21 | Si Woo Kim | 1.4% | 11.4% | 27.2% |
| 22 | Alex Fitzpatrick | 1.3% | 9.2% | 21.5% |
| 23 | J.J. Spaun | 1.2% | 9.4% | 23.4% |
| 24 | Jacob Bridgeman | 1.1% | 9.3% | 23.3% |
| 25 | Alex Smalley | 1.0% | 8.3% | 20.6% |
| 26 | Kristoffer Reitan | 1.0% | 7.6% | 19.0% |
| 27 | Tom Kim | 0.8% | 8.2% | 22.1% |
| 28 | Min Woo Lee | 0.5% | 5.1% | 14.7% |
| 29 | Ryan Fox | 0.4% | 5.4% | 16.0% |
| 30 | Ryan Gerard | 0.4% | 5.8% | 18.5% |