The Open Championship: Model Projections
Win, Top 5, and Top 10 probabilities from the BetTheRent Monte Carlo model (100,000 simulations). Updated as new data becomes available.
Major Championship · Stroke play · 72 holes
Win Probability — Full Field
| Rank | Player | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | 13.8% | 39.4% | 55.1% |
| 2 | Jon Rahm | 10.3% | 30.7% | 44.5% |
| 3 | Rory McIlroy | 6.3% | 22.1% | 34.6% |
| 4 | Bryson DeChambeau | 4.0% | 15.4% | 25.7% |
| 5 | Collin Morikawa | 2.8% | 12.1% | 21.2% |
| 6 | Patrick Cantlay | 2.6% | 11.2% | 20.0% |
| 7 | Joaquin Niemann | 2.5% | 11.8% | 21.5% |
| 8 | Russell Henley | 2.2% | 9.7% | 17.3% |
| 9 | Xander Schauffele | 2.2% | 13.3% | 25.5% |
| 10 | Tyrrell Hatton | 2.0% | 10.5% | 19.9% |
| 11 | Viktor Hovland | 2.0% | 9.4% | 17.3% |
| 12 | Alex Fitzpatrick | 1.9% | 9.2% | 17.4% |
| 13 | Brooks Koepka | 1.6% | 7.0% | 12.5% |
| 14 | Ludvig Aberg | 1.5% | 8.3% | 15.9% |
| 15 | Akshay Bhatia | 1.5% | 6.5% | 12.0% |
| 16 | Eric Cole | 1.4% | 5.9% | 10.4% |
| 17 | Tommy Fleetwood | 1.3% | 8.2% | 17.1% |
| 18 | Adam Scott | 1.3% | 6.3% | 11.6% |
| 19 | Hideki Matsuyama | 1.2% | 6.7% | 13.0% |
| 20 | Matt McCarty | 1.1% | 4.9% | 8.8% |
| 21 | Cameron Young | 1.1% | 5.7% | 11.1% |
| 22 | Justin Thomas | 1.0% | 6.3% | 12.9% |
| 23 | Daniel Berger | 0.9% | 4.7% | 9.3% |
| 24 | David Puig | 0.9% | 5.2% | 10.6% |
| 25 | Nicolai Hojgaard | 0.9% | 4.9% | 9.5% |
| 26 | Matt Fitzpatrick | 0.9% | 5.8% | 12.6% |
| 27 | Rickie Fowler | 0.9% | 4.3% | 8.3% |
| 28 | Corey Conners | 0.9% | 5.2% | 10.5% |
| 29 | Kurt Kitayama | 0.8% | 4.6% | 9.1% |
| 30 | Shane Lowry | 0.8% | 5.0% | 10.4% |
Showing the top 30 of 156 players by win probability. Full field on the Projections page.