the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday: Model Projections
Projections generated by the BetTheRent Monte Carlo model. Updated as new data becomes available.
Win Probability — Full Field
| Rank | Player | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% | Make Cut% | Exp. Score | CFS Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | 13.0% | 40.9% | 60.0% | 97.7% | +44.4 | 5 |
| 2 | Brandt Snedeker | 6.7% | 24.5% | 39.2% | 83.9% | +44.2 | 2 |
| 3 | Cameron Young | 5.4% | 22.1% | 38.0% | 95.0% | +46.9 | 72 |
| 4 | Aaron Rai | 5.3% | 21.2% | 35.9% | 91.3% | +46.4 | 71 |
| 5 | Matt Fitzpatrick | 4.5% | 21.3% | 38.1% | 93.8% | +46.5 | 54 |
| 6 | Russell Henley | 3.6% | 18.8% | 34.9% | 91.1% | +46.3 | 8 |
| 7 | Ludvig Aberg | 3.3% | 17.0% | 31.9% | 94.3% | +47.6 | 33 |
| 8 | Rory McIlroy | 3.3% | 14.1% | 25.9% | 85.7% | +46.8 | 38 |
| 9 | Tommy Fleetwood | 3.0% | 14.1% | 26.4% | 87.0% | +46.9 | 4 |
| 10 | Patrick Cantlay | 2.6% | 12.6% | 24.1% | 84.3% | +46.6 | 12 |
| 11 | Rickie Fowler | 2.5% | 13.1% | 25.4% | 89.6% | +47.6 | 62 |
| 12 | Alex Noren | 2.4% | 12.6% | 24.7% | 86.0% | +46.7 | 41 |
| 13 | Akshay Bhatia | 2.3% | 10.7% | 20.1% | 85.9% | +48.0 | 57 |
| 14 | J.J. Spaun | 2.1% | 10.7% | 21.0% | 78.6% | +45.8 | 67 |
| 15 | Kurt Kitayama | 2.0% | 8.8% | 16.4% | 66.2% | +44.3 | 69 |
| 16 | Shane Lowry | 1.7% | 8.1% | 15.7% | 75.0% | +46.4 | 11 |
| 17 | Adam Scott | 1.7% | 7.9% | 14.8% | 75.1% | +46.9 | 26 |
| 18 | Nico Echavarria | 1.6% | 6.3% | 11.3% | 52.7% | +43.0 | 6 |
| 19 | Sepp Straka | 1.6% | 7.1% | 13.3% | 64.7% | +44.8 | 16 |
| 20 | Si Woo Kim | 1.3% | 9.2% | 19.9% | 85.9% | +47.4 | 61 |
| 21 | Xander Schauffele | 1.3% | 8.8% | 20.1% | 89.9% | +48.2 | 17 |
| 22 | Brian Harman | 1.3% | 6.5% | 13.1% | 74.2% | +46.8 | 70 |
| 23 | Mark Hubbard | 1.2% | 6.0% | 12.0% | 74.4% | +47.3 | 52 |
| 24 | Eric Cole | 1.2% | 6.9% | 14.8% | 79.0% | +47.1 | 22 |
| 25 | Jacob Bridgeman | 1.2% | 6.0% | 12.1% | 69.1% | +45.8 | 3 |
| 26 | Jason Day | 1.2% | 6.1% | 12.1% | 64.8% | +44.9 | 50 |
| 27 | Kristoffer Reitan | 1.2% | 6.1% | 12.5% | 65.3% | +44.7 | 63 |
| 28 | Sam Burns | 1.2% | 6.6% | 14.0% | 72.8% | +45.9 | 35 |
| 29 | Robert MacIntyre | 1.1% | 6.1% | 12.8% | 73.3% | +46.4 | 30 |
| 30 | Min Woo Lee | 1.1% | 6.1% | 12.6% | 66.8% | +45.0 | 64 |
Showing the top 30 of 72 players by win probability. Full field on the Projections page.
Course Fit Rankings
| CFS Rank | Player | CFS Score | Win% | Top 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Kim | 100 | 0.8% | 8.7% |
| 2 | Davis Riley | 99 | — | — |
| 3 | Nick Dunlap | 98 | — | — |
| 4 | Brandt Snedeker | 97 | 6.7% | 39.2% |
| 5 | Jacob Bridgeman | 96 | 1.2% | 12.1% |
| 6 | Tommy Fleetwood | 95 | 3.0% | 26.4% |
| 7 | Scottie Scheffler | 94 | 13.0% | 60.0% |
| 8 | Victor Perez | 93 | — | — |
| 9 | Nico Echavarria | 92 | 1.6% | 11.3% |
| 10 | Denny McCarthy | 91 | 0.1% | 5.9% |
| 11 | Lee Hodges | 90 | — | — |
| 12 | Adam Schenk | 90 | — | — |
| 13 | Russell Henley | 89 | 3.6% | 34.9% |
| 14 | Max Homa | 88 | — | — |
| 15 | Collin Morikawa | 87 | — | — |
| 16 | Sahith Theegala | 86 | 0.3% | 5.1% |
| 17 | Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 85 | — | — |
| 18 | Davis Thompson | 84 | — | — |
| 19 | Daniel Berger | 83 | 0.5% | 7.8% |
| 20 | Shane Lowry | 82 | 1.7% | 15.7% |