John Deere Classic: Model Projections

Pre-tournament projections · July 1, 2026 · TPC Deere Run

Projections generated by the BetTheRent Monte Carlo model. Updated as new data becomes available.

Win Probability — Full Field

Rank	Player	Win%	Top 5%	Top 10%	Make Cut%	Exp. Score
1	Jackson Koivun	6.3%	21.6%	34.0%	80.3%	-11.3
2	Rickie Fowler	3.1%	10.8%	17.3%	60.5%	-6.3
3	Jacob Bridgeman	3.1%	11.1%	18.6%	64.8%	-7.2
4	Daniel Berger	2.9%	11.4%	19.3%	67.1%	-7.6
5	Sungjae Im	2.8%	10.3%	17.1%	63.2%	-6.8
6	Tony Finau	2.7%	10.9%	18.8%	67.2%	-7.6
7	Sudarshan Yellamaraju	2.2%	10.2%	18.4%	69.7%	-8.0
8	Ben Griffin	2.2%	11.2%	21.3%	76.4%	-9.4
9	Stephan Jaeger	2.1%	7.7%	13.1%	56.4%	-5.1
10	Thorbjorn Olesen	2.0%	8.0%	13.9%	59.8%	-5.8
11	Max Greyserman	2.0%	8.1%	14.1%	60.1%	-5.9
12	Kevin Roy	2.0%	7.5%	12.6%	54.7%	-4.7
13	Eric Cole	2.0%	8.8%	15.8%	65.6%	-7.1
14	Pierceson Coody	1.9%	7.9%	13.8%	59.4%	-5.8
15	Jordan Spieth	1.8%	9.0%	16.9%	68.4%	-7.6
16	Ryo Hisatsune	1.8%	7.5%	13.2%	57.6%	-5.4
17	Austin Eckroat	1.8%	7.2%	12.5%	56.8%	-5.2
18	Keith Mitchell	1.7%	8.4%	15.9%	66.9%	-7.3
19	Chris Gotterup	1.7%	8.5%	15.9%	67.6%	-7.4
20	Keegan Bradley	1.7%	8.5%	15.8%	67.6%	-7.4
21	Emiliano Grillo	1.6%	7.0%	12.4%	57.4%	-5.3
22	Michael Thorbjornsen	1.6%	6.9%	12.2%	57.5%	-5.3
23	Mark Hubbard	1.6%	6.9%	12.3%	57.9%	-5.4
24	Jackson Suber	1.5%	6.3%	11.1%	53.5%	-4.4
25	Blades Brown	1.5%	7.7%	15.2%	69.1%	-7.6
26	Max Homa	1.4%	6.8%	13.4%	64.2%	-6.6
27	Johnny Keefer	1.3%	5.7%	10.5%	54.3%	-4.6
28	J.T. Poston	1.3%	6.7%	13.1%	63.9%	-6.5
29	Luke Clanton	1.3%	5.7%	10.5%	55.0%	-4.7
30	Haotong Li	1.2%	5.9%	11.1%	57.2%	-5.2

Showing the top 30 of 142 players by win probability. Full field on the Projections page.