Hubbard Shoots 65 to Lead Texas Open; Five Players One Back at -6
SAN ANTONIO, Texas — Mark Hubbard sits alone atop the leaderboard after Thursday’s opening round of the Valero Texas Open 2026, posting a 7-under 65 at TPC San Antonio. Tony Finau, Steven Fisk, Robert MacIntyre, Andrew Putnam, and Davis Thompson are all one back at 6-under 66, while Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, and six others sit at 5-under 67.
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Round 1 Leaderboard — Valero Texas Open 2026
Strokes Gained (SG)
| Player | Position | Score | R1 | Win % | Top 5 % | Top 10 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hubbard, Mark | 1 | -7 | 65 | 3.1% | 17.5% | 30.6% |
| Finau, Tony | T2 | -6 | 66 | 3.9% | 19.3% | 32.9% |
| Fisk, Steven | T2 | -6 | 66 | 3.2% | 17.4% | 30.6% |
| MacIntyre, Robert | T2 | -6 | 66 | 14.1% | 44.8% | 61.1% |
| Putnam, Andrew | T2 | -6 | 66 | 4.0% | 21.6% | 37.0% |
| Thompson, Davis | T2 | -6 | 66 | 3.6% | 18.8% | 32.4% |
| Aberg, Ludvig | T7 | -5 | 67 | 10.0% | 35.0% | 50.8% |
| Cole, Eric | T7 | -5 | 67 | 2.6% | 15.1% | 27.3% |
| Fleetwood, Tommy | T7 | -5 | 67 | 6.3% | 28.0% | 44.0% |
| Lamprecht, Christo | T7 | -5 | 67 | 0.5% | 4.0% | 9.0% |
| McNealy, Maverick | T7 | -5 | 67 | 5.0% | 22.7% | 37.4% |
| Roy, Kevin | T7 | -5 | 67 | 2.0% | 13.2% | 24.8% |
| Ryder, Sam | T7 | -5 | 67 | 0.7% | 6.1% | 13.2% |
| Zalatoris, Will | T7 | -5 | 67 | 2.3% | 13.9% | 25.2% |
| Bauchou, Zach | T15 | -4 | 68 | 0.5% | 4.6% | 10.6% |
Projections powered by DataGolf data
Round 1 Recap — Valero Texas Open 2026
No single player ran away from the field on Thursday. Five players share second place, and eight more are tied at 5-under. The top 15 spots are covered by just three shots. As we noted in our Valero Texas Open preview, TPC San Antonio rewards ball-striking more than almost any course on the PGA Tour rotation — and the opening round leaderboard reflects exactly that, with iron play and driving quality separating most of the early movers.
MacIntyre put it plainly after his round: “The wind got up pretty much as we were going to tee off, I knew it was going to be tough, but you have to take your chances. Almost on the back nine, a finishing stretch, some big opportunities and thankfully today I’d done that.”
The wind clearly made Thursday a test. Several players near the top of the board leaned on their putting to survive it — more on that in the player breakdowns below.
Leader and Top Contenders
Mark Hubbard — Sole Leader at -7
Mark Hubbard
SG: Putting +1.29 (29th/132)
SG: Off the Tee +0.43 (48th/132)
Hubbard built his lead with his irons, finishing 16th in the field in SG: Approach while also contributing with the flat stick. He did not overpower the course off the tee — ranking 48th in SG: Off the Tee — but he did not need to. A well-rounded, clean round put him at the top of a very crowded leaderboard heading into Friday.
Hubbard entered the week at just 0.2% pre-tournament win probability, making his solo lead one of the bigger first-round surprises at this event. His live win probability has climbed to 3.1%, but the real story is how tight the board is — five players sit one shot back and the field can close in fast on Friday.
Robert MacIntyre — The Highest Win Probability in the Field
Robert MacIntyre
SG: Putting +1.16 (33rd/132)
SG: Off the Tee +1.22 (12th/132)
MacIntyre ranks second in the entire field in SG: Total after Thursday, gaining strokes in all three major categories. He drove it well, hit his irons solidly, and putted above average — the kind of complete round that suggests his 14.1% live win probability is no accident. No other player in the top 15 comes close to that number despite the crowded leaderboard.
MacIntyre was flagged as a strong play heading into the week — the edge we highlighted in Wednesday’s market analysis is looking well-placed after Thursday. His 4.3% pre-tournament win probability has more than tripled overnight. He sits one back of Hubbard and leads all players in projected tournament upside.
Ludvig Aberg — Best Driver in the Early Field
Ludvig Aberg
SG: Putting +0.17 (64th/132)
SG: Off the Tee +1.30 (9th/132)
Aberg ranked ninth in the field off the tee on Thursday, giving himself consistent looks at birdie all day. His approach and putting were both above average but not elite — if he tightens up his iron play on Friday, a charge is very realistic. At 10.0% live win probability, he is the second-biggest name on the board behind MacIntyre.
Aberg came in at 4.7% pre-tournament win probability, one of the higher numbers in the field at the start of the week. Two shots back after 18 holes is not a concerning position for him — this course sets up for ball-strikers, and Aberg has the tee-to-green game to make a run.
Rest of the Top 10
Tony Finau (T2, -6): Finau’s round was built almost entirely on his putter. He ranked 8th in the field in SG: Putting while his approach play was closer to average. That is an unusual profile for Finau, who typically leans on his length and iron play. If the putter cools, he will need his ball-striking to respond.
Steven Fisk (T2, -6): The most interesting stat on the board Thursday. Fisk ranked first in the entire field in SG: Off the Tee — no one drove it better on Thursday — while his approach numbers were below average. He made the most of his positions off the tee, and his putting ranked 22nd. A debut performance worth monitoring on a course that rewards driving.
Andrew Putnam (T2, -6): Putnam combined the fifth-best putting round in the field with solid approach play to post 6-under. He ranked 19th in SG: Approach and fifth in SG: Putting. That combination is hard to sustain for four rounds, but he has a legitimate position heading into Friday.
Davis Thompson (T2, -6): Thompson had the sharpest iron play of any player in the five-way tie at second, ranking 14th in SG: Approach. He also ranked seventh in SG: Off the Tee. His total tee-to-green game was among the best in the field on Thursday, and his 3.6% win probability should probably be higher if the ball-striking holds.
Tommy Fleetwood (T7, -5): Fleetwood came alive with the putter on Thursday, ranking 15th in SG: Putting with a strong +2.11 mark. His approach play was also solid at 26th in the field. Two shots back is a comfortable position for a player of his caliber, and his 6.3% live win probability reflects that.
Maverick McNealy (T7, -5): McNealy’s round was almost entirely a putting performance — he ranked seventh in the field in SG: Putting at +2.63. His tee-to-green numbers were modest. That is a shaky foundation to build on across four rounds at TPC San Antonio, but he is in the mix at 5.0% win probability heading into Friday.
Eric Cole (T7, -5): Cole had one of the more unusual stat lines of the day — he ranked sixth in SG: Putting at +2.66 but ranked 118th out of 132 players in SG: Off the Tee. He essentially overcame a rough driving day with his flat stick. Sustaining that over the weekend at this course will be difficult.
Will Zalatoris (T7, -5): Zalatoris is two shots back at 2.3% win probability. His SG totals landed him in the same tier as Fleetwood and Aberg, but his win probability trails both. He is one of the more accomplished ball-strikers in the field on his best days and is worth watching on Friday.
Market Opportunities
The win probability table after Thursday is telling a clear story. MacIntyre sits at 14.1% and Aberg at 10.0% — the two highest numbers in the field — despite both being one or two shots off the lead. Hubbard leads the tournament outright but checks in at just 3.1%. Five players are tied at second place, which dilutes the value of that group considerably.
Fleetwood at 6.3% is an interesting position — he is two back, but his combination of approach play and putting on Thursday was one of the cleaner complete rounds in the field. McNealy and Cole are both in the top 10 on the strength of hot putting days, which tends to regress on a course that demands ball-striking across 72 holes.
Thompson at 3.6% may be undervalued relative to the quality of his tee-to-green game on Thursday. He ranked in the top 15 in both approach and driving — that is exactly the profile that tends to hold up at TPC San Antonio through the weekend.
Things to Watch Heading Into Friday
1. Can Hubbard maintain his iron play without elite driving?
Hubbard ranked 48th in SG: Off the Tee on Thursday. His approach game kept him on top of the board, but TPC San Antonio’s length and rough tend to punish players who are not getting off the tee clean. If his driving stays average, he will need another sharp iron day to hold the lead.
2. MacIntyre’s complete game versus the rest of the board’s single-category performances.
Several players in the top 10 — Cole, McNealy, Finau — rode hot putting days to their positions. MacIntyre gained strokes in every category and ranked second in total strokes gained for the round. Putting-led rounds at this course historically regress by the weekend. Watch whether Thursday’s approach-and-putting combination players separate from the putter-only players on Friday.
3. Aberg and Fleetwood are just two shots back with higher win probabilities than the leader.
The market clearly sees Thursday’s leaderboard as a starting position, not a settled race. Both Aberg (10.0%) and Fleetwood (6.3%) have better win odds than Hubbard (3.1%) despite trailing by two. Friday will determine whether either of them can get to the top of the board before the weekend.
4. Steven Fisk — the best driver in Thursday’s field — is one back at a course that rewards length.
Fisk ranked first in SG: Off the Tee on Thursday. That is the one category at TPC San Antonio that tends to compound over four rounds. If his approach play and putting hold near average, his driving alone could push him into the conversation through the weekend.
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