Scheffler Steps Away, Lee Steps Up: Your Children’s Houston Open 2026 Preview

The Children’s Houston Open 2026 tees off Thursday at Memorial Park Municipal Golf Course in Houston, Texas, with 135 players chasing a $9.9 million purse. Last year, Min Woo Lee dominated the field and won at -20, edging Gary Woodland and Scottie Scheffler by a single shot in a 144-man field. Lee enters this week as the clear favorite. Here is what the numbers say heading into the week.

Children’s Houston Open 2026: The Biggest Story Before a Shot Is Hit

The biggest storyline heading into Houston is the absence of Scottie Scheffler, who withdrew Tuesday as the +270 favorite. The World No. 1 has finished runner-up here three times without a win. He will now head to Augusta without a final tune-up in his home state of Texas.

That withdrawal reshuffles the entire outlook for the week. Without Scheffler in the field, no player carries better than a 6% win probability. This is one of the most wide-open fields the PGA Tour schedule will see all spring.

Tournament Setup

Memorial Park Municipal Golf Course sits in the heart of Houston. The city has hosted this event for decades, and the course was fully restored by architect Tom Doak in 2020.

Memorial Park Municipal Golf Course
– Par 70 | 7,475 yards
– Location: Houston, TX
– Purse: $9.9 million | Winner: $1,782,000
– Bermuda: Yes — Bermuda greens and fairways
– TV: Thu–Fri 3–7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel) | Streaming: ESPN+

Television Schedule:
Thu–Fri: 3–7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel) | Streaming: ESPN+
Sat–Sun: 1–3 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), 3–6 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock) | Streaming: ESPN+

What wins here:
This is a demanding par-70 layout. At 7,475 yards, it plays long. However, wide fairway corridors mean big hitters can swing freely off the tee. The real test comes on approach shots into multi-tiered greens with steep runoff areas. Miss a green here and making par is genuinely hard. Bogey avoidance is the name of the game. The course features five par 3s and three par 5s, with water in play on just four holes. Only 24 sand penalty areas — the fewest on tour. The tournament record is -22, set by Vijay Singh in 2002. Min Woo Lee set the aggregate scoring record of 260 last year with his -20 total.

Similar courses: TPC San Antonio | Colonial Country Club | Sea Island (RSM Classic)

Players who thrive at those venues tend to perform well here. All three reward precision iron play and Bermuda green putting.

Children’s Houston Open 2026: Win Probability Board

Players to Watch

The Clear Favorite: Min Woo Lee (+1559)

Lee is the defending champion and the top name on the board at 6.0% win probability. The market has him priced at roughly the same number — there is no meaningful gap between what the numbers say and what the sportsbooks are offering. That alignment makes sense. Lee did not just win here last year — he dominated. His four rounds of 66-64-63-67 produced the lowest aggregate score in tournament history. A 32.3% top-10 probability is the highest in the field. At +1559, the market respects his standing but does not make him a prohibitive favorite.

The Mid-Tier Value Plays (+2000 to +5000)

Nicolai Hojgaard (+2875) sits second on the probability board at 3.4%. He carries a 22.5% top-10 probability and an 76.3% chance of making the cut. The model and the market are aligned here. Still, a one-in-four shot at a top 10 at these odds is worth noting for tournament fans tracking the leaderboard.

Chris Gotterup (+2876) matches Hojgaard almost exactly — 3.4% win probability and a slightly higher 23.1% top-10 probability. That top-10 number is the second-best in the entire field, trailing only Lee. Furthermore, his 75.8% cut probability suggests he is a safe bet to play all four rounds. Gotterup is young, long off the tee, and the course profile at Memorial Park rewards that combination of power and precision.

Sam Burns (+3189) brings Texas ties and course familiarity to the week. He carries a 3.0% win probability and a 21.1% top-10 probability. Memorial Park has historically rewarded players who know Bermuda greens. Burns has played plenty of Bermuda golf throughout his career. Additionally, his 75.2% cut probability shows the numbers view him as a reliable presence through the weekend.

Kurt Kitayama (+3213) rounds out this group with a 3.0% win probability and a 21.4% top-10 probability. The numbers and the market see him identically. Nevertheless, that top-10 probability is meaningful in a field this open. Kitayama is a grounded ball-striker who tends to limit big mistakes — exactly the profile this course demands.

Longshots Worth Watching

Jake Knapp (+3097) carries a 3.1% win probability and a 21.5% top-10 probability. Those numbers are not dramatic. However, in a field with no clear dominant player — remember, the pre-tournament betting favorite just withdrew — a one-in-thirty shot at winning deserves a second look. Knapp generates serious distance off the tee. Memorial Park’s wide corridors could suit his game well.

Rickie Fowler (+3629) comes in at 2.7% win probability with a 20.3% top-10 probability. Memorial Park suits ball-strikers who can control their irons into difficult greens. Fowler has always been a polished iron player. Beyond that, he carries strong name recognition and tends to generate crowd energy — which sometimes translates to big weeks. Check DataGolf for his latest form numbers as the week progresses.

Course History Snapshot

One detail jumps out from the winners list. International players have claimed five of the last ten editions. Lee (Australia), Jaeger (Germany), Ortiz (Mexico), and Poulter (England) all won. The course does not favor American players by default. One storyline to watch this week: can another international player follow Lee’s blueprint from 2025?

Cut Line Bubble

These players carry a 35–60% chance of making the cut. A strong or weak opening round could swing their weekend plans dramatically.

None of these players crack a 40% cut probability. That means every name on this list needs a fast start Thursday to avoid an early flight home. Nick Dunlap, a young player with significant upside, is one to monitor. Meanwhile, Christo Lamprecht — a towering South African with elite distance — could either play his way into the weekend or exit early.

One Thing to Watch

The Children’s Houston Open 2026 is missing its biggest star. Scheffler’s withdrawal creates a genuine vacuum at the top of the field. Nobody in this field carries better than a 6% chance to win. That is an unusually flat probability distribution — meaning the numbers do not strongly prefer any single player.

As a result, this could shape up as a week where a leaderboard surprise feels entirely possible. The winning score here typically lands in the -15 to -20 range depending on conditions. Someone in that mid-tier group — Gotterup, Knapp, Kitayama, or even Fowler — could easily post 20 under and walk away with nearly $1.8 million. The course rewards clean ball-striking and patience. Any player who avoids the bogeys Memorial Park invites will be right in the mix come Sunday afternoon.

Don’t miss our weekly market analysis every Wednesday. Check our Thursday predictions before the first tee shot.

Check the full schedule at PGA Tour and explore the numbers at DataGolf.