Woodland Holds One-Shot Lead Into Sunday at Houston; Hojgaard One Back in Coin-Flip Finish
HOUSTON, Texas — Gary Woodland enters the final round of the Children’s Houston Open 2026 at 18-under par, one shot ahead of Nicolai Hojgaard at 17-under, with Min Woo Lee and Michael Thorbjornsen tied at 12-under and six back in third.
Sunday morning starts calm and mild at Memorial Park Golf Course. Temperatures sit at 66°F early before climbing to a high of 83°F by mid-afternoon. Light southerly winds of 3-6 mph in the morning will build to 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph by late afternoon — players finishing early should see the most favorable scoring conditions.
Final Round Leaderboard — Children’s Houston Open 2026
| Player | Pos | R1 | R2 | R3 | Total | Back |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woodland, Gary | 1 | 64 | 63 | 65 | -18 | — |
| Hojgaard, Nicolai | 2 | 68 | 62 | 63 | -17 | 1 |
| Lee, Min Woo | T3 | 68 | 63 | 67 | -12 | 6 |
| Thorbjornsen, Michael | T3 | 68 | 64 | 66 | -12 | 6 |
| Day, Jason | T5 | 68 | 63 | 68 | -11 | 7 |
| Stevens, Sam | T5 | 67 | 65 | 67 | -11 | 7 |
| Keefer, Johnny | T7 | 67 | 68 | 66 | -10 | 8 |
| Nyholm, Pontus | T7 | 69 | 66 | 68 | -10 | 8 |
| Theegala, Sahith | T7 | 67 | 67 | 66 | -10 | 8 |
| Waring, Paul | T7 | 63 | 71 | 66 | -10 | 8 |
| Yellamaraju, Sudarshan | T7 | 69 | 66 | 65 | -10 | 8 |
| Burgoon, Bronson | T12 | 68 | 68 | 66 | -9 | 9 |
| Gotterup, Chris | T12 | 68 | 69 | 65 | -9 | 9 |
| Knapp, Jake | T12 | 69 | 65 | 71 | -9 | 9 |
| Vilips, Karl | T12 | 68 | 65 | 71 | -9 | 9 |
Win Probabilities
Projections powered by DataGolf data
| Player | Position | Score | Back | Win % | Top 5 % | Top 10 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woodland, Gary | 1 | -18 | 0 | 47.2% | 98.0% | 99.6% |
| Hojgaard, Nicolai | 2 | -17 | 1 | 46.7% | 97.9% | 99.5% |
| Lee, Min Woo | T3 | -12 | 6 | 2.8% | 69.5% | 89.8% |
| Thorbjornsen, Michael | T3 | -12 | 6 | 1.6% | 61.9% | 86.5% |
| Day, Jason | T5 | -11 | 7 | 0.4% | 41.4% | 74.7% |
| Stevens, Sam | T5 | -11 | 7 | 0.5% | 43.9% | 77.1% |
| Keefer, Johnny | T7 | -10 | 8 | 0.1% | 22.4% | 55.9% |
| Nyholm, Pontus | T7 | -10 | 8 | — | 11.0% | 41.9% |
| Theegala, Sahith | T7 | -10 | 8 | 0.2% | 29.7% | 64.5% |
| Waring, Paul | T7 | -10 | 8 | — | 13.7% | 41.9% |
| Yellamaraju, Sudarshan | T7 | -10 | 8 | 0.1% | 22.3% | 55.9% |
| Burgoon, Bronson | T12 | -9 | 9 | — | 6.2% | 27.0% |
| Gotterup, Chris | T12 | -9 | 9 | 0.1% | 20.0% | 52.6% |
| Knapp, Jake | T12 | -9 | 9 | — | 3.3% | 26.7% |
| Vilips, Karl | T12 | -9 | 9 | — | 5.2% | 28.3% |
Where the Tournament Stands
Strokes Gained (SG)
This is as close to a coin flip as a tournament can produce. Woodland sits at 47.2% to win. Hojgaard sits at 46.7%. One shot separates them. Everyone else is a distant spectator.
Woodland posted a 65 on Saturday to extend a lead he has held since the opening round. His 54-hole total of 18-under sets a new career-best score at that stage on the PGA Tour. Meanwhile, the numbers behind that score are even more impressive — he leads the entire field in SG: Approach, which measures how well a player hits iron shots into greens.
Hojgaard fired Saturday’s best round with a 63. That moved him from three back to one back. He is playing the best golf of the week from tee to green. However, his win probability barely trails Woodland’s — this is anyone’s trophy heading into Sunday.
As we noted in our Texas Children’s Houston Open preview, Memorial Park demands sharp iron play and consistent putting. Both leaders have delivered exactly that all week.
Lee and Thorbjornsen sit tied at 12-under, six back. They need a near-perfect round while both leaders stumble. It is possible — but the numbers say it is unlikely.
The Top Contenders
Gary Woodland
SG: Putting +6.79 (rank 2/135)
SG: Off the Tee +1.31 (rank 31/135)
Woodland has been the best iron player in the field all week — and it is not particularly close. He also ranks second in putting, which means two of golf’s four major skill categories are firing at an elite level. He came in pre-tournament at just 0.6% to win, as noted in Thursday’s predictions. Now he stands one shot from the title.
Nicolai Hojgaard
SG: Putting +3.52 (rank 20/135)
SG: Off the Tee +2.62 (rank 11/135)
Hojgaard is hitting the ball as well as anyone in the field from tee to green. His Saturday 63 was one of the week’s most electric rounds. The edge we flagged in Wednesday’s market analysis pointed to his tee-to-green upside — and he has delivered. He entered the week at a pre-tournament win probability of just 3.3%. Sunday gives him a real shot.
Min Woo Lee
SG: Putting +0.83 (rank 56/135)
SG: Off the Tee +3.20 (rank 7/135)
Lee is the defending champion here and trails by six. He is the tee-to-tee leader in driving quality this week among the top contenders. However, his putting ranks 56th in the field — and that gap has cost him ground on both leaders. He said Saturday, “A couple more seven-unders would be nice. I can see that Gary’s playing really well. You can make a lot of birdies out here if you play solid.” He needs exactly that on Sunday.
Rest of the Top 10
Michael Thorbjornsen sits tied with Lee at 12-under after an extraordinary run of ball-striking. He has played his last 50 holes without a single bogey — the longest bogey-free streak of his career. Thorbjornsen said he stayed patient Saturday despite one poor chip on hole 12. At 24 years old, a win Sunday would be his first in 53 starts on Tour.
Sam Stevens sits at 11-under and is searching for his first PGA Tour win in his 107th start. The Fort Worth, Texas native has three runner-up finishes — including two in 2025. Stevens ranks 12th in the field in SG: Approach, giving him real weapons heading into Sunday.
Jason Day also sits at 11-under. His approach play has been below his peers this week, but his putting — ranked 8th in the field — has kept him in contention. He is one of three Australians currently sitting inside the top 10 this week.
Sudarshan Yellamaraju is tied for seventh at 10-under after an impressive finish on Saturday. He birdied four of his last five holes for a 65. That stretch extends his run to five straight rounds in the 60s, dating back to The Players Championship.
Also at 10-under: Johnny Keefer, Pontus Nyholm, Sahith Theegala, and Paul Waring. Keefer’s iron play ranks fifth in the field — but his putting sits 117th. That putter will need to show up Sunday for him to climb.
Things to Watch
Can Woodland’s iron play survive Sunday’s rising winds? His SG: Approach leads the entire field at +7.49. Morning calm favors precision. But winds gusting to 20 mph by late afternoon could test even the sharpest iron game on the course.
Will Hojgaard close out a tournament he nearly caught overnight? He fired a 63 on Saturday and trimmed a three-shot deficit to one. His tee-to-green numbers are elite. Sunday is the biggest closing opportunity of his career so far.
Can Thorbjornsen’s bogey-free run survive pressure? He has gone 50 holes without a bogey. The question on Sunday is whether that patience holds when the nerves of a final round kick in. His first Tour win is on the table.
Does Min Woo Lee make a title defense run? He would become just the second player ever to successfully defend the Texas Children’s Houston Open title — matching Vijay Singh’s back-to-back wins in 2005. Lee needs six shots in one round from the field. It is a long shot by the numbers, but Memorial Park can produce big moves on a Sunday.
One Bold Prediction
This is as close as the numbers get. Woodland at 47.2% and Hojgaard at 46.7% is essentially a coin flip. One shot. One round. Two players at the peak of their games.
Woodland’s SG: Approach advantage is the edge that matters most on this course. He ranks first in the field in iron play and second in putting. Hojgaard has been brilliant, but Woodland has held the lead every single day this week. He sets his career-best 54-hole score and plays in front of the Houston crowd. Edge Woodland in a tight, two-man final round — but do not look away.
Follow the live scoring at the PGA Tour leaderboard and dig into the full model at DataGolf.
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