Genesis Scottish Open: Model Projections
Win, Top 5, and Top 10 probabilities from the BetTheRent Monte Carlo model (100,000 simulations). Updated as new data becomes available.
Signature Event · Elevated field · Limited entries
Win Probability — Full Field
| Rank | Player | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | 15.9% | 44.6% | 61.3% |
| 2 | Jon Rahm | 12.9% | 35.9% | 50.3% |
| 3 | Rory McIlroy | 6.3% | 24.4% | 39.0% |
| 4 | Alex Fitzpatrick | 3.2% | 14.1% | 24.6% |
| 5 | Tyrrell Hatton | 2.8% | 13.9% | 24.9% |
| 6 | Xander Schauffele | 2.8% | 16.5% | 31.6% |
| 7 | Patrick Cantlay | 2.8% | 13.0% | 23.2% |
| 8 | Viktor Hovland | 2.6% | 11.8% | 21.2% |
| 9 | Ludvig Aberg | 2.2% | 10.9% | 20.1% |
| 10 | Tommy Fleetwood | 1.9% | 11.0% | 21.5% |
| 11 | Brooks Koepka | 1.9% | 8.5% | 15.2% |
| 12 | Adam Scott | 1.8% | 8.0% | 14.6% |
| 13 | Matt McCarty | 1.6% | 6.2% | 11.0% |
| 14 | Justin Thomas | 1.5% | 8.6% | 16.9% |
| 15 | Nicolai Hojgaard | 1.3% | 6.7% | 12.7% |
| 16 | Kurt Kitayama | 1.3% | 6.3% | 11.9% |
| 17 | Corey Conners | 1.3% | 7.1% | 13.7% |
| 18 | Shane Lowry | 1.3% | 7.0% | 13.8% |
| 19 | Matt Fitzpatrick | 1.2% | 7.6% | 15.6% |
| 20 | Sepp Straka | 1.2% | 5.7% | 10.7% |
| 21 | Jesper Svensson | 1.2% | 5.0% | 9.2% |
| 22 | Wyndham Clark | 1.1% | 5.7% | 10.9% |
| 23 | Robert MacIntyre | 1.0% | 5.5% | 11.1% |
| 24 | Si Woo Kim | 0.9% | 5.7% | 11.5% |
| 25 | Sungjae Im | 0.9% | 4.8% | 9.7% |
| 26 | Patrick Reed | 0.9% | 6.1% | 13.1% |
| 27 | Eric Cole | 0.8% | 4.8% | 9.8% |
| 28 | Brian Harman | 0.8% | 4.5% | 9.0% |
| 29 | Kristoffer Reitan | 0.8% | 4.5% | 9.1% |
| 30 | Kevin Roy | 0.8% | 4.0% | 7.5% |
Showing the top 30 of 153 players by win probability. Full field on the Projections page.