FedEx St. Jude Championship: Model Projections
Win, Top 5, and Top 10 probabilities from the BetTheRent Monte Carlo model (100,000 simulations). Updated as new data becomes available.
Signature Event · Elevated field · Limited entries
Win Probability — Full Field
| Rank | Player | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | 20.0% | 51.4% | 68.7% |
| 2 | Rory McIlroy | 10.7% | 35.2% | 52.8% |
| 3 | Xander Schauffele | 3.8% | 21.3% | 39.8% |
| 4 | Patrick Cantlay | 3.3% | 15.5% | 28.6% |
| 5 | Jackson Koivun | 2.9% | 15.5% | 29.1% |
| 6 | Viktor Hovland | 2.9% | 13.4% | 24.9% |
| 7 | Ludvig Aberg | 2.8% | 14.4% | 27.3% |
| 8 | Collin Morikawa | 2.3% | 12.8% | 25.0% |
| 9 | Cameron Young | 2.2% | 11.1% | 20.8% |
| 10 | Alex Fitzpatrick | 2.1% | 10.2% | 19.4% |
| 11 | Michael Brennan | 2.1% | 10.3% | 19.7% |
| 12 | Sam Burns | 2.0% | 11.7% | 22.9% |
| 13 | Justin Thomas | 1.9% | 10.5% | 21.1% |
| 14 | Hideki Matsuyama | 1.9% | 9.8% | 19.4% |
| 15 | Eric Cole | 1.6% | 7.5% | 13.7% |
| 16 | Adam Scott | 1.6% | 8.7% | 17.4% |
| 17 | Akshay Bhatia | 1.6% | 8.2% | 16.1% |
| 18 | Nicolai Hojgaard | 1.5% | 8.3% | 16.8% |
| 19 | Wyndham Clark | 1.5% | 7.6% | 15.1% |
| 20 | Russell Henley | 1.4% | 8.6% | 17.9% |
| 21 | Tommy Fleetwood | 1.3% | 9.9% | 22.4% |
| 22 | Matt Fitzpatrick | 1.3% | 8.2% | 17.7% |
| 23 | Chris Gotterup | 1.2% | 7.7% | 16.6% |
| 24 | Gary Woodland | 1.2% | 6.6% | 13.2% |
| 25 | Matt McCarty | 1.2% | 5.6% | 11.2% |
| 26 | Robert MacIntyre | 1.1% | 6.7% | 14.2% |
| 27 | Rickie Fowler | 1.0% | 5.6% | 11.5% |
| 28 | Kristoffer Reitan | 1.0% | 5.7% | 12.5% |
| 29 | Corey Conners | 0.9% | 6.4% | 14.5% |
| 30 | Kurt Kitayama | 0.9% | 6.0% | 13.4% |
Showing the top 30 of 69 players by win probability. Full field on the Projections page.