Dallas
Cowboys -3.5
(ATS A 2-3)
at
Las Vegas
Raiders
(ATS H 2-2)
Cowboys Try to Keep Their Season Alive In Las Vegas
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: COWBOYS (3-5-1) AT RAIDERS (2-7)
Allegiant Stadium, Monday, November 17, 2025 | 8:15 PM ET | ESPN/ABC
Spread: Dallas -3.5 | Total: 49.5 | Moneyline: DAL -195 / LVR +165
Game Overview
Week 11 concludes with Monday Night Football as the struggling Dallas Cowboys travel to face the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Both teams enter this primetime matchup desperately seeking momentum, with a combined record of 5-12-1 representing one of the weaker Monday night pairings of the season. However, playoff implications remain for Dallas, who sits just outside the NFC Wild Card picture.
The Cowboys are coming off their bye week following consecutive losses to Arizona (27-17) and the Jets, with the emotional weight of defensive lineman Marshawn Kneeland’s recent passing adding another layer to their season. Las Vegas has dropped three straight games, including a frustrating 10-7 home loss to Denver in Week 10, and fired special teams coordinator Tom McMahon following that defeat.
Dallas leads the all-time series 7-6 but has won three of the last four meetings. The Cowboys are 1-4 on the road this season, while the Raiders have struggled at 1-3 at home in Allegiant Stadium.
Cowboys Offense: Prescott and Explosive Weapons
Despite their disappointing record, Dallas boasts one of the NFL’s most productive offenses, averaging 29.2 points per game – fourth-best in the league. The Cowboys have been forced to outscore opponents due to their porous defense, ranking as one of only two teams allowing more than 30 points per game.
Quarterback Dak Prescott has completed 69.3% of his passes for 2,319 yards with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions through nine games. Prescott ranks second in the NFL in completions (228) and has thrown for 250+ yards in recent games against lower-ranked defenses. The Cowboys QB had 250 yards and a touchdown in his last outing against Arizona before the bye week.
Running back Javonte Williams has been Dallas’ offensive catalyst, leading the team with 716 rushing yards and a team-high eight rushing touchdowns – tied for third in the NFL. Williams averages 64.3 yards per game and provides the Cowboys with consistent production on the ground. He’s supported by Kenneth Gainwell, who has contributed 220 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
The receiving corps received a significant boost with the addition of George Pickens alongside CeeDee Lamb. Pickens has recorded at least 78 receiving yards in four consecutive games, averaging 102 yards over that span, and ranks fourth in the NFL with 764 receiving yards. Lamb provides the primary target with 35 receptions for 491 yards and a touchdown, though his season has been somewhat disappointing by his standards.
Tight end Jake Ferguson ranks tied for second among NFL tight ends with six touchdown receptions, making him a crucial red-zone weapon. However, Ferguson faces a tough matchup as Las Vegas has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to the tight end position.
Raiders Offense: Smith’s Struggles Continue
Las Vegas ranks near the bottom of the NFL in offensive production, averaging just 15.4 points per game – second-worst in the league ahead of only Tennessee. The Raiders rank third-worst in EPA per play, creating significant concerns about their ability to move the ball consistently.
Quarterback Geno Smith has endured a difficult season, completing 66.7% of his passes for 1,844 yards with 11 touchdowns and a league-leading 12 interceptions. Smith has been sacked 27 times in nine games, highlighting the offensive line’s struggles. He’s listed as questionable with a quad contusion but is expected to play after logging full practices Friday and Saturday with no game designation on the final injury report.
Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty provides a bright spot, ranking second among rookie rushers with 547 yards and four touchdowns through nine games. Jeanty has recorded 60+ rushing yards in six of his last seven games and offers Las Vegas their most consistent offensive threat. He’s averaging 68 scrimmage yards per game with 683 total scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns.
The receiving corps underwent significant changes at the trade deadline when the Raiders traded away leading receiver Jakobi Meyers. Tre Tucker now steps into an expanded role with 34 receptions for 455 yards and four touchdowns. Tight end Brock Bowers remains the primary target with 32 catches for 383 yards and three touchdowns, offering Smith a reliable safety valve.
Defensive Matchups
Dallas Defense – Reinforcements Arrive: The Cowboys made significant moves at the trade deadline, acquiring linebacker Logan Wilson from Cincinnati and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams from the New York Jets. Both players were limited during the bye week as they acclimate to new systems, but their presence should provide immediate upgrades to a defense that ranks 31st in EPA per play allowed (0.172).
Dallas ranks 29th in Rush EPA per play allowed (0.049) and 30th in Dropback EPA per play (0.252), meaning opponents can attack them successfully regardless of approach. The Cowboys allow 30.8 points per game, making them one of the NFL’s most exploitable defenses. Kenny Clark provides interior pressure with 2.5 sacks, while the defensive backfield has been decimated by injuries.
Las Vegas Defense – Middle-of-the-Pack Unit: The Raiders rank 19th in EPA per play allowed (0.029), significantly better than Dallas’ defensive metrics. Pete Carroll’s defense has shown competency despite the team’s poor record, and they could be the difference-maker in a game featuring two struggling units.
Maxx Crosby leads the pass rush with 5.0 sacks to go with a league-leading 13 tackles for loss. Jonah Laulu adds 4.0 sacks and ranks tied for fourth among defensive linemen with five pass deflections. The Raiders’ defensive front should generate pressure against Dallas’ offensive line.
The secondary has struggled, ranking 23rd in pass defense EPA per play, but they face a favorable matchup given their opponent. Las Vegas has allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns this season, which could benefit Williams and the Cowboys’ ground game.
Critical Injury Report
Dallas Cowboys:
- LB Logan Wilson – Limited (new to team, not injury)
- S Donovan Wilson – Questionable (various)
- CB Shavon Revel – Questionable
- Multiple offensive linemen monitoring
Las Vegas Raiders:
- QB Geno Smith – NO DESIGNATION after questionable tag (quad contusion, expected to play)
- OG Dylan Parham – Monitoring
- C Jackson Powers-Johnson – Monitoring
The Cowboys are relatively healthy coming out of their bye week, with their new acquisitions getting acclimated. Smith’s quad contusion was a concern but he’s been cleared to play after full practices. The Raiders’ offensive line health remains crucial given Smith’s tendency to hold the ball and take sacks.
Fantasy Football Analysis
Must-Start Players:
- Dak Prescott (QB): QB1 option against the league’s 21st-ranked defense. Expect 260-280 yards and 2-3 touchdowns. The Cowboys should move the ball efficiently.
- Javonte Williams (RB): Strong RB1/RB2 with touchdown upside against a defense allowing the third-most rushing TDs. Project 15-20 carries, 75-90 yards, TD likely.
- CeeDee Lamb (WR): Must-start WR1 despite frustrating season. Expect 6-8 catches for 70-90 yards.
- George Pickens (WR): WR2 with WR1 upside. Has hit Over on yards in seven of nine games. Project 5-7 catches for 80-100 yards, TD possible.
Flex Considerations:
- Ashton Jeanty (RB): Solid flex option who should get volume. Dallas allows big rushing numbers. Expect 12-16 carries, 60-80 yards.
- Jake Ferguson (TE): Top-10 TE with six touchdowns but tough matchup. TD-dependent play.
- Brock Bowers (TE): TE1 option as Smith’s safety valve. Expect 5-7 catches for 50-70 yards, TD possible.
Lower-Tier Starts:
- Geno Smith (QB): Low-end QB2/streaming option. Interception risk with 12 picks. Only viable in 2-QB/superflex leagues.
- Tre Tucker (WR): WR3/flex in deeper leagues. Expanded role post-Meyers trade creates opportunity.
Avoid:
- Kenneth Gainwell (RB): Backup role limits upside despite Williams’ workload.
- Raiders WRs not named Tucker: Limited upside in struggling offense.
Betting Analysis and Trends
The Cowboys opened at -3.5 but some books moved to -3, suggesting sharp money on the Raiders. However, public betting heavily favors Dallas with 83% of bets and 78% of handle at DraftKings. The line movement indicates professional money sees value in Las Vegas.
Key Trends:
- Cowboys are 6-3 to the OVER this season
- Raiders are 3-6 to the UNDER (6-3 overall)
- Raiders are 7-2 to the UNDER in last nine home games
- Cowboys have won 4 of last 5 road games against losing teams
- Raiders have covered in 9 of last 10 home games against losing teams
- Cowboys are just 1-4 ATS as favorites this season
- Dallas is 2-3 ATS on the road
Over/Under Analysis: The total of 49.5 creates interesting debate. Dallas averages 29.2 points but faces a competent Raiders defense. Las Vegas averages just 15.4 points and has gone 29 consecutive games without scoring 30 points. The Raiders’ highest game totals are 48, 46.5, and 46.5 – they’ve reached 50+ points just once.
Given Smith’s interception issues (league-leading 12), Las Vegas’ offensive struggles, and their tendency toward low-scoring affairs, the UNDER appears favorable despite Dallas’ offensive firepower.
Coaching Context
The emotional element cannot be ignored for Dallas. Brian Schottenheimer, in his first season as Cowboys head coach, must navigate the team through grief following Kneeland’s passing. “We understand our best way to honor Marshawn on the field is how we play,” Schottenheimer said. The extra rest from the bye and additional day before Monday’s game should help the team’s mental preparation.
Pete Carroll faces his own challenges with Las Vegas at 2-7. However, Carroll has thrived on Mondays throughout his career, posting a 16-10 straight-up record and 13-11-2 mark against the spread. He’s also 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive losses, demonstrating his ability to steady teams during adversity.
The Bottom Line
This Monday Night Football matchup features two flawed teams with contrasting issues. Dallas possesses offensive firepower averaging 29.2 points per game but ranks 31st in defensive EPA per play allowed. Las Vegas struggles to score at just 15.4 points per game but maintains a respectable 19th-ranked defense.
The Cowboys benefit from bye week rest and new defensive reinforcements in Wilson and Williams, though integration time remains a factor. The Raiders have home-field advantage and Carroll’s strong track record on Monday nights and after losing streaks.
Key factors include Dallas’ ability to protect Prescott against Crosby’s pass rush, Williams’ effectiveness against a run defense allowing the third-most rushing touchdowns, and whether Smith can limit turnovers after throwing a league-leading 12 interceptions. The total of 49.5 seems high given Las Vegas’ 29-game streak without scoring 30 points and their tendency toward UNDER results at home.