Charles Schwab Challenge: Model Projections

Pre-tournament projections · May 27, 2026 · Colonial Country Club

Projections generated by the BetTheRent Monte Carlo model. Updated as new data becomes available.

Win Probability — Full Field

Rank	Player	Win%	Top 5%	Top 10%	Make Cut%	Exp. Score	CFS Rank
1	Russell Henley	4.0%	16.8%	28.6%	81.5%	-4.1	6
2	Rickie Fowler	3.7%	15.7%	27.4%	81.0%	-3.9	19
3	Akshay Bhatia	3.4%	12.3%	20.4%	68.6%	-1.6	58
4	Brandt Snedeker	3.2%	12.9%	22.4%	74.1%	-2.6	50
5	Eric Cole	3.1%	11.5%	19.3%	68.5%	-1.5	44
6	Alex Smalley	3.0%	14.2%	26.1%	82.0%	-3.8	125
7	J.J. Spaun	3.0%	12.3%	21.4%	73.4%	-2.4	62
8	Ludvig Aberg	2.7%	11.8%	21.2%	74.9%	-2.5	7
9	Justin Thomas	2.3%	9.7%	17.1%	67.6%	-1.2	35
10	Austin Eckroat	2.2%	9.1%	16.1%	65.5%	-0.8	40
11	Sam Ryder	2.1%	8.8%	15.8%	66.3%	-0.9	70
12	Beau Hossler	2.0%	10.1%	19.1%	75.8%	-2.4	117
13	Chris Kirk	1.9%	8.3%	15.2%	66.3%	-0.8	96
14	Keegan Bradley	1.9%	7.8%	14.2%	64.3%	-0.5	5
15	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	1.9%	10.0%	19.9%	78.2%	-2.8	3
16	Gary Woodland	1.9%	8.8%	16.3%	69.5%	-1.4	10
17	Doug Ghim	1.8%	8.0%	14.6%	64.3%	-0.5	87
18	Pierceson Coody	1.6%	6.3%	11.3%	56.3%	+0.9	9
19	Kevin Roy	1.6%	7.0%	12.9%	63.0%	-0.2	22
20	Michael Kim	1.4%	5.9%	10.7%	56.0%	+1.0	56
21	Hideki Matsuyama	1.4%	6.8%	12.8%	64.0%	-0.3	27
22	Thorbjorn Olesen	1.4%	6.1%	11.4%	59.8%	+0.4	55
23	Mac Meissner	1.4%	8.5%	17.4%	77.8%	-2.5	4
24	Max Greyserman	1.3%	5.4%	9.9%	55.1%	+1.2	34
25	Brian Harman	1.3%	5.8%	10.9%	57.9%	+0.7	13
26	Mark Hubbard	1.3%	5.8%	10.7%	57.3%	+0.8	45
27	Davis Thompson	1.3%	6.3%	12.5%	65.3%	-0.5	57
28	Kevin Yu	1.3%	5.5%	10.3%	56.7%	+0.9	115
29	Hayden Springer	1.2%	6.1%	11.9%	63.3%	-0.2	111
30	Matt McCarty	1.2%	5.6%	10.6%	57.5%	+0.8	48

Showing the top 30 of 131 players by win probability. Full field on the Projections page.

CFS Rank	Player	CFS Score	Win%	Top 10%
1	Davis Riley	100	0.3%	2.5%
2	Scottie Scheffler	99	—	—
3	Ben Griffin	99	1.2%	14.9%
4	Christiaan Bezuidenhout	98	1.9%	19.9%
5	Mac Meissner	98	1.4%	17.4%
6	Keegan Bradley	97	1.9%	14.2%
7	Russell Henley	97	4.0%	28.6%
8	Ludvig Aberg	96	2.7%	21.2%
9	Emiliano Grillo	96	0.5%	5.3%
10	Pierceson Coody	95	1.6%	11.3%
11	Gary Woodland	94	1.9%	16.3%
12	Bud Cauley	94	—	—
13	Karl Vilips	93	0.4%	5.7%
14	Matti Schmid	93	—	—
15	Robert MacIntyre	92	1.1%	11.3%
16	Brian Harman	92	1.3%	10.9%
17	Harry Hall	91	0.9%	12.0%
18	David Lipsky	91	0.3%	4.2%
19	Jordan Spieth	90	—	—
20	Lee Hodges	89	0.3%	5.8%