Travelers Championship: Model Projections

Pre-tournament projections · June 24, 2026 · TPC River Highlands

Projections generated by the BetTheRent Monte Carlo model. Updated as new data becomes available.

Win Probability — Full Field

Rank	Player	Win%	Top 5%	Top 10%	Make Cut%	Exp. Score
1	Scottie Scheffler	19.3%	51.5%	69.5%	100.0%	-18.7
2	Xander Schauffele	4.7%	23.6%	42.1%	100.0%	-14.7
3	Patrick Cantlay	3.6%	16.4%	29.6%	100.0%	-12.3
4	Ludvig Aberg	3.5%	15.8%	28.9%	100.0%	-12.2
5	Alex Fitzpatrick	2.8%	13.4%	25.1%	100.0%	-11.4
6	Collin Morikawa	2.5%	13.2%	25.4%	100.0%	-11.7
7	Adam Scott	2.4%	11.1%	20.5%	100.0%	-9.8
8	Viktor Hovland	2.4%	12.4%	23.9%	100.0%	-11.2
9	Tommy Fleetwood	2.4%	13.2%	25.7%	100.0%	-11.8
10	Justin Thomas	2.1%	11.4%	22.3%	100.0%	-10.9
11	Akshay Bhatia	2.0%	9.2%	17.2%	100.0%	-8.7
12	Cameron Young	2.0%	10.0%	19.6%	100.0%	-10.0
13	Nicolai Hojgaard	1.8%	9.1%	17.8%	100.0%	-9.5
14	Sam Burns	1.7%	10.0%	20.6%	100.0%	-10.7
15	Wyndham Clark	1.7%	7.8%	14.9%	100.0%	-8.1
16	Kurt Kitayama	1.7%	8.2%	16.0%	100.0%	-8.7
17	Sepp Straka	1.6%	7.6%	14.6%	100.0%	-7.9
18	Hideki Matsuyama	1.6%	9.0%	18.6%	100.0%	-10.1
19	Jacob Bridgeman	1.5%	7.1%	13.8%	100.0%	-7.8
20	Rickie Fowler	1.4%	6.7%	12.7%	100.0%	-7.0
21	Daniel Berger	1.4%	7.2%	14.5%	100.0%	-8.3
22	Sungjae Im	1.3%	6.7%	13.0%	100.0%	-7.5
23	Tony Finau	1.3%	7.0%	14.4%	100.0%	-8.5
24	Corey Conners	1.3%	7.4%	15.6%	100.0%	-9.3
25	Shane Lowry	1.3%	7.5%	15.8%	100.0%	-9.3
26	Matt McCarty	1.2%	5.9%	11.8%	100.0%	-6.8
27	Si Woo Kim	1.2%	6.8%	14.1%	100.0%	-8.6
28	Jason Day	1.2%	5.9%	11.9%	100.0%	-7.2
29	Robert MacIntyre	1.2%	6.5%	13.8%	100.0%	-8.4
30	Kristoffer Reitan	1.1%	6.1%	12.7%	100.0%	-8.0

Showing the top 30 of 72 players by win probability. Full field on the Projections page.