Baltimore Ravens (7-7) @ New England Patriots (11-3)
M&T Bank Stadium | Baltimore, Maryland
Sunday, December 21, 2025 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC, Peacock
Weather: 42°F, Clear
SPREAD: Ravens -3.5 | TOTAL: 48.5 | MONEYLINE: BAL -192 / NE +160
Sunday Night Football delivers a critical AFC showdown as Baltimore (7-7) hosts New England (11-3) in a must-win matchup. The Ravens desperately need a victory after dropping consecutive home games and falling one game behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North. Meanwhile, the Patriots can clinch an AFC playoff berth with a win after their 10-game winning streak ended in a 35-31 loss to Buffalo. Drake Maye has emerged as an MVP candidate, leading the NFL with a 70.9% completion rate while guiding New England to the only undefeated road record (6-0). Baltimore’s 3-5 home record reflects a team that has lost its fortress mystique at M&T Bank Stadium.
The Patriots hold an 11-5 all-time advantage, including a 9-3 regular season record. Baltimore took the most recent meeting with a 37-26 victory at Gillette Stadium in September 2022, as Lamar Jackson threw four touchdowns. These franchises share a storied playoff history between 2009 and 2014. The 2012 AFC Championship remains legendary—Baltimore won 28-13 at Gillette en route to claiming the Super Bowl. Conversely, the previous year featured Billy Cundiff’s infamous missed field goal. Baltimore enters 22-5 under John Harbaugh in home night games, though they’re 0-2 this season.
The line opened Baltimore -3.5 despite recent struggles. Sharp action appears split between the Patriots’ momentum and value on a desperate Ravens team. The total climbed from 47.5 to 48.5, indicating market expectation for offensive fireworks. Baltimore’s playoff chances sit at 38% according to ESPN Analytics, rising to 48% with a win but dropping to 24% with a loss.
Baltimore Ravens Form
Last 3 Games: 1-2 (L 14-32 vs CIN, L 22-27 vs PIT, W 24-0 @ CIN)
The Ravens’ season hit crisis mode after Thanksgiving’s 32-14 home collapse against Cincinnati, snapping a five-game winning streak. Lamar Jackson has gone three consecutive starts without a passing touchdown for the first time in his career—an alarming development for a team averaging 24.1 points per game. Baltimore compounded its misery with a 27-22 home defeat to Pittsburgh in Week 14, falling behind in the division race. Ultimately, the Ravens bounced back with a dominant 24-0 shutout at Cincinnati in Week 15, suffocating Joe Burrow while controlling tempo through Derrick Henry’s ground attack. Nevertheless, Baltimore sits 7-7, one game behind Pittsburgh.
Offensively, the Ravens rank 26th in passing (199.8 YPG) but 5th in rushing (136.8 YPG) behind Henry’s production. Henry has accumulated 1,125 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 4.8 per carry. Jackson has completed 65.2% of passes for 2,450 yards with 18 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, adding 333 rushing yards. Zay Flowers leads receivers with 71 catches for 959 yards (9th in NFL). Defensively, Baltimore allows 24.4 PPG (21st) and has been gashed at home, surrendering 32 to Cincinnati and 27 to Pittsburgh. The defensive EPA/play sits around 0.045.
Key Stats: 24.1 PPG (12th) | -0.015 EPA/play (25th) | -0.8 Turnover margin
New England Patriots Form
Last 3 Games: 2-1 (W 26-20 @ CIN, W 33-15 vs NYG, L 35-31 vs BUF)
The Patriots rode an extraordinary 10-game winning streak into Week 15, but Buffalo’s 35-31 shootout victory exposed defensive fragility while validating Drake Maye’s elite quarterback play. Maye threw for over 350 yards and three touchdowns in the loss, demonstrating poise that has transformed New England’s offense. The Week 12 victory at Cincinnati (26-20) showcased their ability to win tough road games. Additionally, the Monday Night Football demolition of the Giants (33-15) in Week 13 reinforced their AFC East favorites status. Furthermore, the Patriots’ perfect 6-0 road record stands as the only unblemished away mark in the NFL.
Statistically, Maye has posted remarkable numbers: 3,567 passing yards (6th), 23 touchdowns (7th), just 7 interceptions, and a league-leading 70.9% completion rate. He’s added 362 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns. Running backs TreVeyon Henderson (773 yards, 7 TDs) and Rhamondre Stevenson form a dangerous committee that combined for 198 yards against Buffalo. Stefon Diggs leads receivers with 67 catches for 731 yards, while Hunter Henry provides a red zone target with 46 catches for 628 yards and 5 touchdowns. However, the defense showed cracks against Josh Allen, surrendering 35 points. Defensive tackle Milton Williams remains on IR, weakening the interior against Henry. Despite this, New England ranks 5th in points allowed (18.5 PPG).
Key Stats: 27.8 PPG (6th) | +0.085 EPA/play (8th) | +1.2 Turnover margin
What to Watch
1. Patriots’ Run Defense vs. Derrick Henry
The critical matchup centers on New England’s ability to contain Derrick Henry without Milton Williams anchoring the interior. The Patriots must maintain gap discipline against a back who has compiled 1,125 yards and 10 touchdowns. Mike Vrabel knows Henry’s tendencies from coaching him in Tennessee (2018-2023), but knowledge doesn’t guarantee stopping a back who thrives when defenses lose gap integrity. Baltimore will test whether New England learned from Buffalo’s success, when James Cook rushed for 107 yards exploiting those same gaps.
2. Lamar Jackson’s Passing Slump
Jackson’s three-game streak without a passing touchdown must end for Baltimore’s playoff hopes to survive. Jackson has struggled with accuracy during this slump, though he hasn’t practiced fully since early November due to lower-body injuries. Baltimore’s offense depends on Jackson rediscovering his rhythm against a Patriots defense that ranks 5th in points allowed. The Ravens need Jackson to find Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews downfield. Jackson’s mobility remains a weapon—his 333 rushing yards provide an outlet when passing lanes close.
3. Drake Maye’s Deep-Ball Accuracy
Maye ranks second in the NFL with 26 completions traveling 20-plus yards downfield. The Patriots’ quarterback has mastered balancing explosive plays against shorter options that move chains. Baltimore’s cornerbacks must prevent big plays while respecting Maye’s mobility. However, the Patriots face a Ravens defense that has struggled at home, surrendering explosive plays repeatedly. Maye’s ability to capitalize on defensive lapses could determine whether New England matches scores in a high-scoring affair.
Player Projections
| Position | Player | Projection | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Lamar Jackson | 235 Pass Yds, 1 Pass TD, 1 INT, 55 Rush Yds, 1 Rush TD | Must break three-game TD drought against vulnerable Patriots secondary |
| RB | Derrick Henry | 95 Rush Yds, 1 Rush TD, 2 Rec, 15 Rec Yds | Patriots missing Williams on interior creates favorable matchup for power |
| RB | Justice Hill | 25 Rush Yds, 3 Rec, 30 Rec Yds | Change-of-pace role provides receiving outlet from backfield on third downs |
| WR | Zay Flowers | 6 Rec, 75 Rec Yds, 1 Rec TD | Primary target averages 68.5 yards per game, Jackson’s most trusted option |
| WR | Rashod Bateman | 4 Rec, 50 Rec Yds | Secondary option benefits from defensive attention on Flowers and Andrews downfield |
| WR | DeAndre Hopkins | 3 Rec, 40 Rec Yds | Veteran possession receiver provides third-down security blanket in crucial situations |
| TE | Mark Andrews | 4 Rec, 45 Rec Yds, 1 Rec TD | Team-high five receiving TDs, Patriots have struggled against athletic tight ends |
| Position | Player | Projection | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Drake Maye | 275 Pass Yds, 2 Pass TDs, 1 INT, 35 Rush Yds | MVP candidate leads NFL with 70.9% completion rate, dual-threat keeps plays alive |
| RB | TreVeyon Henderson | 75 Rush Yds, 1 Rush TD, 3 Rec, 25 Rec Yds | Explosive rookie has scored 28+ fantasy points in three of last five games |
| RB | Rhamondre Stevenson | 50 Rush Yds, 2 Rec, 18 Rec Yds | Committee back shares carries with Henderson, provides physical between-tackles presence |
| WR | Stefon Diggs | 6 Rec, 80 Rec Yds | Leading receiver with 67 catches for 731 yards, veteran presence reliable |
| WR | Kayshon Boutte | 4 Rec, 55 Rec Yds | Deep threat benefits from Maye’s strong arm and willingness to attack downfield |
| WR | DeMario Douglas | 5 Rec, 45 Rec Yds | Slot receiver provides underneath safety valve, effective on third down conversions |
| TE | Hunter Henry | 5 Rec, 60 Rec Yds, 1 Rec TD | Red zone target with 46 catches for 628 yards and five touchdowns |
Betting Analysis
Line Movement
The spread opened Baltimore -3.5 and has held steady throughout the week despite public money leaning toward New England based on their superior momentum. Sharp action appears split, with some professionals backing the Patriots’ perfect road record while others see value in a desperate Ravens team getting a prime home spot. Meanwhile, the total climbed from an opening 47.5 to the current 48.5, indicating market expectation for offensive fireworks. Public betting shows approximately 58% of tickets on New England, creating potential contrarian value on Baltimore. However, the Ravens’ 0-2 home primetime record this season undermines their historical 22-5 dominance under Harbaugh in such spots.
Value Assessment
Baltimore’s 5-9 ATS record and particularly their 1-5 mark against winning teams suggests they struggle to cover as favorites. Additionally, the Ravens are just 3-5 ATS when favored by 3.5+ points this season. Conversely, New England’s 8-6 ATS record includes covering in their only game as underdogs of 3.5+ points. The Patriots have won three of five games outright as underdogs, demonstrating their ability to exceed expectations in difficult spots. Furthermore, the moneyline implies Baltimore has just a 60% win probability, while ESPN’s FPI favors the Ravens by only 3.9 points—essentially a pick’em given the spread. Ultimately, both teams have hit the over in 8 of 14 games (57.1%), supporting the elevated total of 48.5.
Weather: Clear skies and 42°F temperatures provide ideal passing conditions with no wind or precipitation expected. Weather will not be a factor in this primetime matchup.
Prediction and Play
PREDICTION: Patriots 27, Ravens 24
PLAY: Pass