3M Open: Model Projections
Win, Top 5, and Top 10 probabilities from the BetTheRent Monte Carlo model (100,000 simulations). Updated as new data becomes available.
Signature Event · Elevated field · Limited entries
Win Probability — Full Field
| Rank | Player | Win% | Top 5% | Top 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | 29.0% | 60.8% | 75.0% |
| 2 | Jesper Svensson | 3.0% | 10.3% | 16.2% |
| 3 | Hideki Matsuyama | 2.9% | 13.2% | 23.0% |
| 4 | Jackson Koivun | 2.6% | 13.8% | 25.2% |
| 5 | Kurt Kitayama | 2.2% | 10.3% | 18.4% |
| 6 | Corey Conners | 2.2% | 11.1% | 20.2% |
| 7 | Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 1.9% | 9.7% | 17.3% |
| 8 | Stephan Jaeger | 1.9% | 7.7% | 13.3% |
| 9 | Gary Woodland | 1.7% | 8.2% | 14.7% |
| 10 | Tony Finau | 1.5% | 8.2% | 15.7% |
| 11 | Sungjae Im | 1.5% | 7.5% | 13.8% |
| 12 | Jackson Suber | 1.4% | 6.8% | 12.2% |
| 13 | Ben James | 1.4% | 7.0% | 12.6% |
| 14 | Keith Mitchell | 1.4% | 8.0% | 15.7% |
| 15 | Maverick McNealy | 1.3% | 8.1% | 16.0% |
| 16 | Jake Knapp | 1.3% | 7.4% | 14.1% |
| 17 | Brian Harman | 1.3% | 6.4% | 12.1% |
| 18 | Johnny Keefer | 1.2% | 6.3% | 12.1% |
| 19 | Thorbjorn Olesen | 1.2% | 5.9% | 11.3% |
| 20 | Jason Day | 1.2% | 6.2% | 11.9% |
| 21 | Casey Jarvis | 1.1% | 6.8% | 13.4% |
| 22 | Max Greyserman | 1.1% | 6.0% | 11.7% |
| 23 | Emiliano Grillo | 1.1% | 5.6% | 10.6% |
| 24 | Pierceson Coody | 1.0% | 5.9% | 11.7% |
| 25 | Mac Meissner | 0.9% | 6.1% | 12.8% |
| 26 | Jordan Smith | 0.9% | 5.8% | 11.8% |
| 27 | Austin Eckroat | 0.9% | 5.2% | 10.2% |
| 28 | Tom Hoge | 0.9% | 4.7% | 8.7% |
| 29 | Lucas Glover | 0.9% | 4.7% | 8.9% |
| 30 | Haotong Li | 0.9% | 4.9% | 9.5% |
Showing the top 30 of 144 players by win probability. Full field on the Projections page.