WEEK 17 NFL MARKET ANALYSIS
December 26, 2025 | 2025 NFL Season
Ravens @ Packers |
Jaguars @ Colts |
Patriots @ Jets |
Bills @ Eagles |
Bears @ 49ers
RAVENS @ PACKERS | SATURDAY 8:00 PM ET
Movement: Packers -3.0 to -4.5 | Total 45.5 to 40.5
Public: Packers 81% ATS money
Quarterback injuries drove the biggest total move of Week 17. This opened at 45.5 and crashed to 40.5 on Sunday when Lamar Jackson’s status worsened. That’s a full 5-point drop. The spread bounced from -2.5 to -3.0 to -4.5 as Jordan Love’s status improved through the week.
Lamar Jackson is doubtful with a back contusion suffered against New England. He took a knee to his back late in the second quarter and couldn’t return. Jackson hasn’t practiced all week. Tyler Huntley is expected to start. Huntley went 1-0 earlier this season with 155 yards passing in a win over Chicago. Baltimore is 7-8 and gets eliminated if Pittsburgh beats Cleveland on Sunday.
Jordan Love remains in concussion protocol after taking a helmet-to-helmet hit from Chicago’s Austin Booker. He practiced limited all week and is questionable. Backup Malik Willis is also questionable with a shoulder injury and illness. If neither plays, Clayton Tune starts. He’s thrown 23 career NFL passes with a 29.3 passer rating.
The market priced in potential backup-vs-backup football at Lambeau Field in the teens. Games with totals under 41 go Under 54% of the time. Green Bay is getting 81% of the ATS money despite the spread moving against them, which indicates public confidence that Love plays.
JAGUARS @ COLTS | SUNDAY 1:00 PM ET
Movement: Jaguars -4.5 to -6.5 | Total 44.5 to 48.5
Public: Jaguars 55% of money on 42% of tickets
Jacksonville is the hottest team in football. The spread jumped from -4.5 to -6.5 after they demolished Denver 34-20, ending the Broncos’ 11-game winning streak. The total climbed from 44.5 to 48.5. Both moves reflect what Trevor Lawrence is doing.
In his last four games, Lawrence has thrown 14 touchdown passes and rushed for 2 more with zero turnovers. That puts him in company with Josh Allen (2024 MVP season), Drew Brees (2019), and Patrick Mahomes (2018 MVP season) as the only players in NFL history with 10+ touchdowns and zero turnovers over any two-game span. For the season: 26 passing TDs, 7 rushing TDs. During Jacksonville’s six-game win streak, they’ve averaged 354 yards per game while holding opponents to 244. They’ve outscored opponents 171-72 over the last five games.
Indianapolis lost quarterback Daniel Jones to a season-ending Achilles injury. Backup Philip Rivers threw two interceptions Monday night in a 48-20 loss to San Francisco. Jacksonville beat the Colts 36-19 three weeks ago. The betting splits show sharp action: Jaguars getting just 42% of tickets but 55% of money. That 13-point disparity means larger, professional wagers are backing the road favorite. Jacksonville is 10-4-1 ATS this season.
PATRIOTS @ JETS | SUNDAY 1:00 PM ET
Movement: Patriots -9.5 to -13.5 | Total 42.5 (no change)
Public: Jets 70% of tickets
Sharp money pushed this line 4 full points in three days. New England opened at -9.5 on Tuesday. By Christmas Eve it was -13.5, crossing key numbers at 10, 12.5, and 13. The Jets are drawing 70% of public tickets but the line keeps climbing. That’s reverse line movement.
The moneyline moved from -800 to -900. Books added juice despite lopsided public backing of New York. When professional bettors lay nearly two touchdowns in a divisional game, the talent gap is extreme. New England is 12-3 but hasn’t generated public excitement. They grind out wins without flash. The Patriots are 9-6 ATS but that doesn’t capture their efficiency.
The Jets are 3-12 and have quit. Aaron Rodgers threw three interceptions last week against Miami. New York ranks 30th in offensive DVOA and 28th on defense. This is a franchise in disarray facing a disciplined Patriots team that rarely beats itself. The sharp money sees a potential blowout.
EAGLES @ BILLS | SUNDAY 4:05 PM ET
Movement: Bills -3.0 to -1.5 | Total 44.5 (no change)
Weather: Snow expected, temps low 30s, winds 21mph with gusts
Sharp money moved this 1.5 points toward Philadelphia despite Buffalo being at home. The total stayed at 44.5 but weather suggests the Under. Snow is expected with sustained winds at 21mph and stronger gusts. These conditions favor run-heavy football.
Buffalo’s James Cook has averaged 112 yards per game in his last three home starts. Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley leads the NFL with 1,688 rushing yards. This projects as a ground-and-pound affair. Josh Allen is playing through a foot injury. He missed Tuesday’s walkthrough and called it “still sore” but plans to play. The market priced in uncertainty about his mobility, which matters in bad weather.
Philadelphia is 7-2 on the road. Buffalo is 6-2 at home but just 1-4 ATS as a home favorite this season. That trend is significant. The Bills consistently fail to cover inflated home numbers. The market adjusted by dropping this line to essentially a pick’em between two Super Bowl contenders.
49ERS @ BEARS | SUNDAY NIGHT 8:20 PM ET
Movement: 49ers -2.5 to -3.0 | Total 51.5 to 52.5
Public: Bears 92% of ATS money
Weather: Clear skies, temps low 40s, wind 1mph
Chicago is getting 92% of the money bet against the spread. The line has barely moved. When 92% of money backs one side and the number stays put, either books are comfortable with massive exposure or sharp money is quietly on the other side.
The public loves Chicago’s rest advantage. The Bears played Saturday (overtime win vs Green Bay). San Francisco played Monday night. That’s a two-day edge on a cross-country trip. But teams coming off Saturday games playing Sunday cover at just 51% historically. The market knows rest advantages are overvalued.
Chicago is 11-4 but 16th in total DVOA. They’ve won six games this season trailing with under two minutes left—the most by any team since 1983. That’s clutch, but underlying metrics don’t support dominance. The Bears rank 22nd in defensive DVOA when you remove takeaways. They’re 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games against San Francisco.
San Francisco is 11-4 despite massive injuries to Fred Warner and Nick Bosa. Brock Purdy has been exceptional, averaging 248.1 passing yards through seven starts with 18 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. The 49ers rank 3rd in offensive DVOA. Their defense ranks 25th overall but has allowed just 17.4 points per game over the last four weeks.
George Kittle avoided a high ankle sprain but has a mid-to-low ankle sprain. Status uncertain for Sunday night. Weather won’t be a factor: clear skies at Levi’s Stadium with temps in the low 40s and essentially no wind. The line not moving despite 92% public backing suggests sharp money is on San Francisco. Given the 49ers’ offensive metrics and Chicago’s poor road ATS record in this matchup, one side is getting destroyed Sunday night.