Minnesota
Vikings
(ATS A 2-3)
at
Dallas
Cowboys -5.5
(ATS H 4-2)
Playoffs On the Line at Jerry’s World
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: VIKINGS (5-8) AT COWBOYS (6-6-1)
ATT Stadium, Sunday, December 14, 2025 | 8:20 PM ET | NBC
Spread: Dallas -5.5 | Total: 47.5 | Moneyline: DAL -270 / MIN +220
INTRODUCTION
Sunday Night Football brings an NFC clash with major playoff implications as the struggling Minnesota Vikings travel to Arlington to face the Dallas Cowboys in a must-win scenario for the home team. The Cowboys need to run the table to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive, sitting 1.5 games behind Philadelphia in the NFC East. Meanwhile, the Vikings are playing out a disappointing season but showed signs of life in Week 14 with quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s best performance yet.
Dallas enters desperate after a 44-30 road loss to Detroit on Thursday Night Football in Week 14 snapped a three-game winning streak. Minnesota comes in with momentum from a stunning 31-0 shutout victory over Washington, their most complete performance of the season. The primetime spotlight at AT&T Stadium sets the stage for a team fighting for survival against a team searching for consistency.
MATCHUP HISTORY
The Cowboys lead the all-time series 19-15 and have dominated the recent meetings. Dallas has won three consecutive games and five of the last six dating back to 2013. The most recent clash came in November 2022 when the Cowboys demolished Minnesota 40-3 at U.S. Bank Stadium. That remains Dallas’s largest margin of victory in this rivalry.
Despite Dallas’s recent dominance, Minnesota owns an interesting edge as the road team. The Vikings are 7-2 in their last nine regular-season trips to Arlington. Their last victory in Dallas came during the 2019 season when they won 28-24. The series has been remarkably balanced historically, with many close contests. Between 2010 and 2021, six of seven meetings were decided by four points or fewer.
The rivalry features playoff significance as well, with seven postseason meetings. The Vikings hold a 3-1 edge in playoff matchups, including victories in the 2009 NFC Divisional Round and a memorable Hail Mary heartbreaker in 1975.
TEAM FORM ANALYSIS
Minnesota Vikings Form (5-8)
The Vikings have battled through arguably the league’s most difficult season, cycling through three different starting quarterbacks. After beginning 2-2 with veteran Carson Wentz at the helm, Minnesota suffered a crushing quarterback injury crisis that ultimately ended Wentz’s season. Second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy took over starting duties in Week 8 and has shown flashes of promise.
Minnesota’s last three games tell the story of their inconsistency. They dropped close contests to Seattle and Green Bay before the Week 14 shutout victory. The 31-0 demolition of Washington showcased what this team can be when firing on all cylinders. McCarthy threw three touchdown passes without a turnover while the defense suffocated the Commanders offense. This marked just the second time all season Minnesota’s starting offensive line was fully intact, which proved crucial.
The Vikings’ fatal flaw remains ball security. They lead the NFL in turnovers committed and own the league’s second-worst turnover differential. When they protect the football, they’re competitive. When they don’t, disaster strikes.
Dallas Cowboys Form (6-6-1)
Dallas entered Week 14 riding high after victories over the Commanders, Giants, and Eagles. The Thursday night loss to Detroit exposed persistent defensive problems that have plagued this team all season. Detroit quarterback Jared Goff picked apart a secondary missing star cornerback Trevon Diggs, while Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs ran wild.
The Cowboys’ home/road split tells two different stories. At AT&T Stadium, Dallas averages 32.7 points per game and sports a 4-1-1 record. On the road, they’ve been inconsistent at best. Quarterback Dak Prescott leads the NFL in passing yards with 3,637 and touchdown passes with 26, orchestrating an elite aerial attack featuring George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb.
Special teams have provided a boost, with kicker Brandon Aubrey making history in Week 14 by converting three field goals of 55-plus yards in a single game. The offense remains Dallas’s strength, ranking first in total yards and third in points scored. Unfortunately, the defense ranks dead last in passing yards allowed and 31st in scoring defense.
COACHING ANALYSIS
Brian Schottenheimer vs. Kevin O’Connell
Schottenheimer’s offensive background shows in Dallas’s high-powered attack, ranking first in total yards. However, defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s departure to Washington has exposed vulnerabilities – the Cowboys rank last in pass defense DVOA. O’Connell navigates his toughest season with quarterback instability, but defensive coordinator Brian Flores keeps Minnesota competitive, ranking second in pressure rate. The scheme matchup favors Flores’s aggressive blitz packages against Dallas’s vulnerable pass protection, while the Cowboys counter with explosive passing that can punish overaggression.
WHAT TO WATCH
McCarthy vs. Dallas’s Pass Defense: The second-year quarterback faces the NFL’s worst pass defense. Dallas allows 255.2 passing yards per game and has surrendered passing touchdowns at an alarming rate. If Minnesota’s offensive line stays healthy, McCarthy could build on his Week 14 breakthrough.
Pressure on Prescott: Minnesota’s defense ranks second in the NFL in pressure rate and will test Dallas’s pass protection. Prescott has been sacked 22 times this season, and the Vikings’ blitz-heavy scheme under Flores aims to speed up quarterbacks’ internal clocks.
The Jefferson Factor: Justin Jefferson has been invisible the past two weeks with just 11 yards receiving against the Commanders. Facing Dallas’s 32nd-ranked pass defense presents a bounce-back opportunity for the Vikings’ superstar receiver.
Cowboys’ Rushing Attack: Dallas ranks 20th in Rush EPA and 29th in Rush Success Rate since Week 12. Running back Javonte Williams has struggled with just 3.9 yards per attempt over that span. Minnesota has allowed 134 rushing yards per game over their last five contests, presenting an opportunity for Dallas to establish balance.
PLAYER PROJECTIONS
| Position | Minnesota Vikings | Projection | Position | Dallas Cowboys | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | J.J. McCarthy | 215 Pass Yds, 2 Pass TDs | QB | Dak Prescott | 295 Pass Yds, 3 Pass TDs, 1 INT |
| RB | Aaron Jones Sr. | 65 Rush Yds, 1 Rush TD, 3 Rec, 25 Rec Yds | RB | Javonte Williams | 85 Rush Yds, 1 Rush TD, 4 Rec, 30 Rec Yds |
| RB | Jordan Mason | 45 Rush Yds, 2 Rec, 15 Rec Yds | WR | George Pickens | 7 Rec, 115 Rec Yds, 1 Rec TD |
| WR | Justin Jefferson | 6 Rec, 95 Rec Yds, 1 Rec TD | WR | CeeDee Lamb | 6 Rec, 85 Rec Yds |
| WR | Jordan Addison | 4 Rec, 55 Rec Yds | WR | Ryan Flournoy | 3 Rec, 45 Rec Yds |
| TE | T.J. Hockenson | 3 Rec, 35 Rec Yds | TE | Jake Ferguson | 5 Rec, 55 Rec Yds, 1 Rec TD |
BETTING TRENDS
Minnesota Vikings
- ATS Record: 5-8 overall
- Road ATS: 3-4
- As underdog of 5.5+ points: 1-2 ATS
- O/U Record: 7-6 to the over
- Last 5 ATS: 1-4
- Turnover differential: -12 (2nd worst in NFL)
Dallas Cowboys
- ATS Record: 7-6 overall
- Home ATS: 4-2
- As favorite: 3-7 ATS in last 10
- O/U Record: 8-5 to the over
- Last 5 ATS: 4-1 at home
- Home scoring average: 32.7 PPG
LAST 3 GAMES PERFORMANCE
| Team | PF | PA | YPG | YPG/A | Rush YPG | Rush YPG/A | Rec YPG | Rec YPG/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 18.7 | 18.3 | 309 | 325 | 128 | 118 | 181 | 207 |
| Dallas | 31.3 | 28.0 | 378 | 336 | 115 | 148 | 263 | 188 |
ADVANCED STATS
| Metric | Minnesota | Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| OFFENSE | ||
| Net Yards Per Play | 5.2 | 6.1 |
| EPA/Play | -0.04 | +0.18 |
| Success Rate | 41% | 48% |
| Pressure Rate Faced | 18% | 22% |
| Red Zone TD% | 52% | 64% |
| DEFENSE | ||
| Net Yards Per Play | 4.9 | 5.8 |
| EPA/Play | -0.08 | +0.11 |
| Success Rate | 44% | 39% |
| Pressure Rate Generated | 32% | 24% |
| Red Zone TD% Allowed | 48% | 41% |
| OTHER | ||
| Turnover Differential | -12 | +2 |
| OL Injuries | Darrisaw (Q), Chandler (OUT) | None significant |
Legend:
- EPA/Play: Expected Points Added per play (higher is better)
- Success Rate: Percentage of plays that positively impact expected points
- Pressure Rate: QB pressure percentage (faced on offense / generated on defense)
PICKS
Spread: Dallas -5.5 – ⭐⭐⭐
Total: Under 47.5 – ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Moneyline: Dallas -270 – ⭐⭐