MacIntyre Holds Two-Shot Lead Heading Into Final Round at Valero Texas Open
As a result, SAN ANTONIO, Texas — Robert MacIntyre leads the Valero Texas Open 2026 at 15-under par, two clear of Ludvig Åberg at 13-under, with Ryo Hisatsune and Matt Wallace tied at 11-under and a five-way logjam at 10-under featuring Tony Finau, Michael Kim, Chris Kirk, Marco Penge, and Chandler Phillips.
Sunday morning starts cloudy with showers possible and a south/southeast breeze of 6-12 mph. By afternoon, winds shift north/northeast and gust to 15-plus mph as thunderstorms move through. Most importantly, morning starters will play the more manageable conditions — afternoon wave players face real wind and the threat of weather delays.
Valero Texas Open 2026: Final Round Leaderboard
| Player | Pos | R1 | R2 | R3 | Total | Back |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacIntyre, Robert | 1 | 66 | 64 | — | -15 | — |
| Aberg, Ludvig | 2 | 67 | 67 | — | -13 | 2 |
| Hisatsune, Ryo | T3 | 68 | 68 | — | -11 | 4 |
| Wallace, Matt | T3 | 71 | 69 | — | -11 | 4 |
| Finau, Tony | T5 | 66 | 69 | — | -10 | 5 |
| Kim, Michael | T5 | 72 | 65 | — | -10 | 5 |
| Kirk, Chris | T5 | 70 | 68 | — | -10 | 5 |
| Penge, Marco | T5 | 68 | 72 | — | -10 | 5 |
| Phillips, Chandler | T5 | 72 | 66 | — | -10 | 5 |
| Jaeger, Stephan | T10 | 72 | 69 | — | -9 | 6 |
| Putnam, Andrew | T10 | 66 | 70 | — | -9 | 6 |
| Roy, Kevin | T10 | 67 | 68 | — | -9 | 6 |
| Smalley, Alex | T10 | 68 | 68 | — | -9 | 6 |
| Thompson, Davis | T10 | 66 | 73 | — | -9 | 6 |
| Yu, Kevin | T10 | 69 | 70 | — | -9 | 6 |
Win Probabilities
| Player | Position | Score | Back | Win % (Live) | Top 5 % (Live) | Top 10 % (Live) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacIntyre, Robert | 1 | -15 | 0 | 50.2% | 90.6% | 96.5% |
| Aberg, Ludvig | 2 | -13 | 2 | 26.1% | 77.8% | 89.4% |
| Hisatsune, Ryo | T3 | -11 | 4 | 4.8% | 43.7% | 66.7% |
| Wallace, Matt | T3 | -11 | 4 | 1.8% | 31.4% | 57.4% |
| Finau, Tony | T5 | -10 | 5 | 3.4% | 34.9% | 57.4% |
| Kim, Michael | T5 | -10 | 5 | 1.4% | 23.4% | 45.1% |
| Kirk, Chris | T5 | -10 | 5 | 1.6% | 25.6% | 48.6% |
| Penge, Marco | T5 | -10 | 5 | 0.8% | 17.9% | 39.5% |
| Phillips, Chandler | T5 | -10 | 5 | 0.7% | 15.8% | 34.9% |
| Jaeger, Stephan | T10 | -9 | 6 | 0.3% | 9.3% | 24.8% |
| Putnam, Andrew | T10 | -9 | 6 | 1.0% | 19.4% | 40.9% |
| Roy, Kevin | T10 | -9 | 6 | 1.2% | 20.0% | 40.1% |
| Smalley, Alex | T10 | -9 | 6 | 1.4% | 21.3% | 42.2% |
| Thompson, Davis | T10 | -9 | 6 | 0.7% | 16.9% | 39.0% |
| Yu, Kevin | T10 | -9 | 6 | 0.5% | 13.1% | 31.5% |
Projections powered by DataGolf data
Where the Valero Texas Open 2026 Stands
Strokes Gained (SG)
Robert MacIntyre has not just led this tournament — he has rewritten its history. At the same time, his opening 36-hole total of 130 set the lowest such score since TPC San Antonio became the host site in 2010. Meanwhile, previously, Si Woo Kim in 2019 and Brian Harman in 2025 shared that record at 12-under. MacIntyre is two strokes better.
As we noted in our Valero Texas Open preview, MacIntyre entered the week with a 4.3% pre-tournament win probability — a live underdog who has since taken firm control. Additionally, the iron play he has shown over three rounds is the defining story. His SG: Approach leads the entire field at +6.84. That gap is not close.
Åberg Is the Only Real Threat
Ludvig Åberg trimmed one shot from MacIntyre’s lead Saturday, moving from four back to two. In addition, he started his third round with birdies on three of his first five holes. Meanwhile, Åberg leads the field in SG: Off the Tee and SG: Tee to Green for the week. He is coming off back-to-back top-5 finishes — his first such stretch as a professional. The edge we flagged in Wednesday’s market analysis pointed toward his ball-striking form, and that has absolutely held.
Four shots back, Hisatsune and Wallace are alive but face a steep climb. Additionally, five back, the logjam at 10-under has long odds to overcome two shots on each of the top two players in a single round.
Top Contenders — Final Round
Robert MacIntyre
SG: Putting +3.78 (10th/132)
SG: Off the Tee +1.67 (18th/132)
MacIntyre has been the best iron player in the field by a wide margin. Also, his SG: Approach ranks first, and his SG: Putting ranks inside the top 10. That combination at TPC San Antonio is nearly impossible to beat. He is also chasing a piece of history — a third consecutive lefthander winning this event, following Akshay Bhatia in 2024 and Brian Harman in 2025.
Ludvig Åberg
SG: Putting +1.64 (40th/132)
SG: Off the Tee +2.93 (4th/132)
Åberg is the one player in this field with a realistic path to catching MacIntyre. Also, his SG: Off the Tee ranks fourth and his overall ball-striking has been elite all week. However, his SG: Putting ranks 40th — if MacIntyre’s putter stays warm, Åberg has very little margin for error. He carries a 26.1% win probability into Sunday.
Ryo Hisatsune
SG: Putting +3.13 (16th/132)
SG: Off the Tee +1.77 (16th/132)
Hisatsune has been quietly excellent across all three major statistical categories. Additionally, his SG: Putting ranks 16th and his SG: Approach ranks 13th — no obvious weakness anywhere. Still, four shots is a large gap on Sunday. His win probability sits at 4.8%, which reflects how much would have to go wrong ahead of him.
Rest of the Top 10
Five-Way Tie at 10-Under
Tony Finau finished Saturday strong with an eagle on the final hole. His SG: Off the Tee ranks 13th and his SG: Putting ranks 21st. Five back with a 3.4% win probability, he needs a career Sunday at TPC San Antonio. Matt Wallace at T3 has the fifth-best SG: Total in the field this week, driven by a strong approach game. His path to the trophy requires both leaders to stumble badly.
Michael Kim has the eighth-best SG: Approach in the field and got to 10-under quietly. Chris Kirk and Marco Penge are both at 10-under, though Penge had a tough Saturday round of 72 before recovering ground. Chandler Phillips rounds out the T5 group at 10-under.
At T10, Kevin Roy has the second-best SG: Approach in the entire field at +4.91 — but his SG: Putting sits at -2.24, ranking 105th. That putting deficit has cost him dearly. Andrew Putnam, Alex Smalley, Stephan Jaeger, Davis Thompson, and Kevin Yu all sit at 9-under, six back with slim but non-zero chances if the leaders unravel.
Things to Watch
Will MacIntyre’s record-setting pace hold under Sunday pressure? He set the lowest 36-hole total in this event’s TPC San Antonio era. However, he has two PGA Tour wins in 84 starts — big leads on Sundays are uncharted territory.
Can Åberg’s putting cost him the tournament? His SG: Off the Tee and SG: Approach are elite. Nevertheless, his SG: Putting ranks 40th in the field. On a course where approach play sets up birdie chances, missed putts are the difference between winning and finishing second.
Is a lefthander winning three straight Texas Opens actually happening? Bhatia in 2024, Harman in 2025, MacIntyre now holding the 54-hole lead — the historical quirk is real and in play.
Will the afternoon thunderstorms create chaos? Morning starters play clean conditions. Afternoon players face wind shifts and storm risk. Suspensions could scramble pairings, momentum, and green speeds. Any delay that stretches past early afternoon changes the entire calculus.
One Bold Prediction
MacIntyre at 50.2% is essentially a coin flip against the field combined — not against any one player. Åberg at 26.1% is the only legitimate threat, and his putting has been the one crack in an otherwise brilliant week. That matters because macIntyre’s iron play has been the best in the field by a significant margin, and TPC San Antonio rewards approach play above almost everything else. The numbers show A two-shot lead with the best iron game in the tournament is a strong position. MacIntyre finishes the job Sunday and becomes the third straight lefthander to win this title.
By contrast, follow the live scoring at the PGA Tour leaderboard and dig into the full model at DataGolf.
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