Valero Texas Open 2026: The Entire Top of the Board Is Overpriced — Here’s What the Model Says
The Valero Texas Open 2026 kicks off one of the most loaded weeks on the PGA Tour calendar — not because of what’s happening in San Antonio, but because of what’s happening the week after. TPC San Antonio hosts a 131-player field, and the market has already made up its mind about who should be favored. The problem is, the odds board and our model don’t agree at the top.
Ludvig Åberg opens as the favorite at +1500, with Tommy Fleetwood (+1600) and Robert MacIntyre (+2000) close behind. Instead, all three are here playing into form ahead of Augusta next week — the only automatic Masters invitation on the line goes to the winner of this event, which adds real juice to the top of the field.
BetTheRent Model Board — Valero Texas Open 2026
PTS — Projected Tournament Strength. Composite ranking: win prob + placement + cut + consistency.
CFS — Course Fit Score (0–100). How well the player’s skills match this course. 80+ = elite fit.
| Player | Odds | PTS | CFS | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert MacIntyre | +2000 | 0.279 | N/A | 4.3% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1600 | 0.278 | N/A | 4.3% |
| Ludvig Åberg | +1500 | 0.2753 | N/A | 4.7% |
| Russell Henley | +1800 | 0.2693 | N/A | 3.7% |
| Si Woo Kim | +2150 | 0.2678 | N/A | 3.9% |
| Jordan Spieth | +2050 | 0.2638 | N/A | 3.8% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2250 | 0.2572 | N/A | 3.4% |
| Maverick McNealy | +2800 | 0.2481 | N/A | 3.3% |
| Rickie Fowler | +2800 | 0.2401 | N/A | 2.8% |
| Sepp Straka | +2800 | 0.2267 | N/A | 2.3% |
CFS scores are not available for this week’s field yet. Furthermore, they update closer to Thursday’s first tee time and will be added when published.
The most striking thing about this board is how tight the PTS cluster is at the top. MacIntyre actually ranks first by PTS despite being priced longer than both Fleetwood and Åberg — the model sees him as the strongest overall tournament expectation in the field. Åberg gets the market’s top billing because of name value and Augusta momentum, but his PTS is third, not first. Further down, McNealy, Fowler, and Straka all share the same +2800 book price while their model scores spread meaningfully — McNealy is the strongest of that trio by a noticeable margin.
Outright Odds Board — Valero Texas Open 2026
Furthermore, reading the board: Book Odds = what sportsbooks are offering. Market Implied = the win probability the book odds imply (includes vig). Fair Odds = what our pre-tournament model says the correct price should be. Win % = projected win probability.
When Book Odds are higher (longer) than Fair Odds, the market is underpricing that player. Even so, When Book Odds are lower (shorter) than Fair Odds, the market is overpricing that player.
| Player | Book Odds | Market Implied | Fair Odds | Win % | Top 10 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Åberg, Ludvig | +1500 | 6.2% | +2000 | 4.7% | 26.8% |
| Fleetwood, Tommy | +1600 | 5.9% | +2200 | 4.3% | 27.2% |
| MacIntyre, Robert | +2000 | 4.8% | +2300 | 4.3% | 27.5% |
| Kim, Si Woo | +2150 | 4.4% | +2400 | 3.9% | 25.6% |
| Spieth, Jordan | +2050 | 4.7% | +2600 | 3.8% | 24.8% |
| Henley, Russell | +1800 | 5.3% | +2400 | 3.7% | 25.9% |
| Matsuyama, Hideki | +2250 | 4.3% | +2700 | 3.4% | 23.6% |
| McNealy, Maverick | +2800 | 3.4% | +3000 | 3.3% | 22.1% |
| Fowler, Rickie | +2800 | 3.4% | +3600 | 2.8% | 20.7% |
| Straka, Sepp | +2800 | 3.4% | +4500 | 2.3% | 18.3% |
| Mitchell, Keith | +3500 | 2.8% | +4300 | 2.3% | 17.4% |
| Thorbjornsen, Michael | +2800 | 3.4% | +4400 | 2.1% | 16.9% |
| Noren, Alex | +4000 | 2.4% | +5000 | 2.0% | 16.6% |
| Spaun, J.J. | +4000 | 2.4% | +5200 | 1.9% | 16.3% |
| McCarthy, Denny | +4600 | 2.1% | +6700 | 1.5% | 14.3% |
Every player in the top seven on this board is overpriced — meaning the books are giving you shorter odds than what the model says is fair. Åberg is the most overpriced name on the board: the market is implying a 6.2% win probability while our model puts him at 4.7%, with fair odds closer to +2000. Henley at +1800 is a similar story — the model has him at +2400 fair with a 3.7% win probability, so the market is pricing in roughly 1.6 points of extra probability that the model doesn’t support. The only names near fair value are McNealy and Noren; everything below Straka represents meaningful overpricing relative to projected output.
One Market Observation: The Masters Shadow Is Distorting This Board
The week before the Masters is one of the strangest pricing environments of the year, and this board is a good example of why. Åberg, Fleetwood, and Matsuyama are all names that generate Augusta excitement — and that halo is almost certainly driving money into their Valero prices right before the market has had a chance to properly separate Masters buzz from TPC San Antonio fit. The result is a top of the board that’s been compressed in a way that benefits the books, not the bettor.
MacIntyre is the most interesting name to watch here. That said, he ranks first on our model board, he’s at +2000 — longer than both of the players ranked below him — and his Top 10 probability (27.5%) is the highest on the board. He isn’t getting Masters hype the way Åberg or Fleetwood are, and the price reflects that. For a deeper look at course history, recent form, and what TPC San Antonio rewards, check out our full Valero Texas Open Tournament Preview. You can also catch up on everything that happened last week in our previous tournament recap.
Worth noting: first round tee times and full field pairings are available at PGA Tour.
Win probabilities sourced from DataGolf.
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