Atlanta enters Week 16 at 4-10, eliminated from playoff contention alongside Arizona. Both teams rank among the league’s biggest disappointments. Furthermore, the Rams hold Atlanta’s first-round pick from their 2025 draft trade, eliminating any tank incentive. Consequently, this matchup features two franchises playing for pride and evaluating talent for 2026.

Meanwhile, Arizona’s 5-9 record marks six consecutive losses despite Jacoby Brissett’s consistent QB play. Nevertheless, Brissett has finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in all nine starts, averaging 42.7 pass attempts and 21.1 fantasy PPG. Additionally, tight end Trey McBride continues dominating, posting 134 yards and 2 TDs last week against Houston.

Historically, these NFC rivals split their 2024 series. The Falcons won 28-24 in Atlanta while Arizona prevailed 31-27 in the desert. Indeed, both games exceeded 51 combined points, establishing a high-scoring trend. Despite defensive struggles on both sides, offensive firepower suggests another entertaining shootout.

Last 3 Games: 0-3 (L @ SEA 17-31, L vs HOU 21-35, L vs LAR 17-31)

Arizona’s defense has collapsed during their six-game slide, allowing 40-plus points four times. Brissett threw for 289 yards and 2 TDs against Houston but couldn’t overcome defensive breakdowns. More concerningly, the Cardinals allow 27.7 PPG (30th) and 5.8 yards per play.

Offensively, Arizona ranks 18th in EPA/play while averaging 22.1 PPG (16th). Brissett completes 66% of passes for 2,845 yards with 19 TDs and 8 INTs. Additionally, McBride leads all TEs with 1,247 receiving yards and 10 TDs, serving as the offense’s “engine.” The Cardinals’ rushing attack ranks 27th at 97.2 YPG.

Defensively, Arizona ranks 28th in EPA/play allowed, surrendering 385 YPG (29th). Their secondary allows 261 pass YPG (29th). However, injuries have decimated the unit, forcing backups into prominent roles. The run defense ranks 24th at 124.5 YPG allowed.

Key Stats: 22.1 PPG (16th) | -0.015 EPA/play (18th) | 7-7 ATS

Last 3 Games: 1-2 (L vs MIN 13-42, W vs TB 31-26, L vs CAR 17-23)

Atlanta welcomed back Kirk Cousins, who threw for 344 yards and 3 TDs in the Tampa Bay victory. Nevertheless, the Falcons lost to Carolina, exposing continued inconsistency. Drake London returns from a four-game knee injury, reuniting with Cousins after posting 44/651/6 in their last six games together.

Statistically, Atlanta ranks 16th in offensive EPA/play while averaging 23.3 PPG (12th). Cousins has completed 68% of passes for 3,456 yards with 24 TDs and 13 INTs. Furthermore, Bijan Robinson provides elite versatility with 1,254 scrimmage yards and 9 TDs. Kyle Pitts Sr. comes off a monster 166-yard, 3-TD performance.

Defensively, the Falcons rank 23rd in EPA/play allowed, giving up 24.4 PPG (20th). They struggle containing tight ends, ranking 28th against the position. Additionally, Atlanta allows 246 pass YPG (27th), creating exploitable matchups for McBride.

Key Stats: 23.3 PPG (12th) | -0.011 EPA/play (16th) | 5-9 ATS

Denver enters Week 16 at 12-2, leading the AFC West and positioned to clinch their first division title since 2015. The Broncos need just one win to secure the crown. Furthermore, rookie QB Bo Nix continues exceeding expectations, leading Denver’s resurgence after years of playoff drought. A road win in Jacksonville would cement their playoff positioning.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville sits at 8-6, holding the AFC’s third seed in a tight wildcard race. Trevor Lawrence has caught fire, throwing 12 TDs and 3 INTs over his last five games. Consequently, the Jaguars won five straight before their Week 15 loss to Denver. Additionally, Lawrence leads the NFL with 10 red zone passing TDs during the winning streak.

Historically, these franchises rarely meet, making this a fascinating cross-conference matchup. Both teams have improved dramatically, with Denver’s defense ranking 1st in red zone defense (38.5% TD rate) facing Jacksonville’s 13th-ranked red zone offense. Indeed, this matchup features two of the league’s most surprising contenders battling for playoff seeding.

Last 3 Games: 2-1 (W vs IND 31-13, L vs LAC 21-29, W @ JAX 27-24)

Denver’s defense has carried them throughout the season. They held Indianapolis to 13 points and limited Jacksonville to 24 despite Lawrence’s hot streak. More impressively, the Broncos rank 1st in red zone defense, allowing TDs on just 38.5% of drives—the only team under 45%.

Offensively, Denver ranks 3rd in EPA/play (0.128) while averaging 26.1 PPG (7th). Bo Nix has completed 65% of passes for 3,458 yards with 26 TDs and 9 INTs. Additionally, rookie RB RJ Harvey has emerged, playing 68% of snaps recently with 73% of carries. The balanced attack ranks 9th in rushing at 139.8 YPG.

Defensively, the Broncos rank 1st in EPA/play allowed, surrendering just 17.9 PPG (4th). Their pass rush generates relentless pressure with 49 sacks (2nd). Furthermore, Denver allows just 3.4 yards per carry (2nd), stifling opposing ground games.

Key Stats: 26.1 PPG (7th) | 0.128 EPA/play (3rd) | 9-5 ATS

Last 3 Games: 2-1 (W vs TEN 38-10, W vs HOU 30-27, L vs DEN 24-27)

Jacksonville’s offense has exploded during their recent surge. Lawrence threw for 330 yards and 5 TDs against Tennessee, showcasing elite timing with his receivers. Nevertheless, the Jaguars fell short against Denver despite Lawrence’s efficient 288-yard, 2-TD performance.

Statistically, Jacksonville ranks 11th in offensive EPA/play while averaging 24.8 PPG (9th). Lawrence has completed 66% of passes for 3,876 yards with 32 TDs and 11 INTs. Furthermore, Travis Etienne should see increased usage with Bhayshul Tuten (finger) out. Jakobi Meyers has emerged as Jacksonville’s best receiver with 24/314/3 over his last five games.

Defensively, the Jaguars rank 17th in EPA/play allowed, giving up 23.2 PPG (17th). They generate moderate pressure with 35 sacks (14th). However, they allow 3.4 yards per carry (3rd-best), creating a strength against Denver’s rushing attack.

Key Stats: 24.8 PPG (9th) | 0.047 EPA/play (11th) | 9-5 ATS

Detroit enters Week 16 at 13-1, leading the NFC and chasing the #1 seed. The Lions need wins to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Furthermore, their offense ranks 1st in EPA/play, averaging 32.4 PPG (1st). A road victory against Pittsburgh would strengthen their grip on the conference’s top spot.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh sits at 10-4, holding a playoff spot but fading down the stretch. The Steelers have lost three of their last four games. Nevertheless, Aaron Rodgers provides veteran leadership despite declining arm strength. Additionally, T.J. Watt’s lung injury leaves Pittsburgh without their defensive centerpiece, severely hampering pass rush effectiveness.

Historically, these storied franchises have battled in memorable playoff games. Detroit leads the recent series, winning the last meeting 31-28 in 2023. Indeed, both teams expect high-scoring affairs when they meet, with the Lions’ explosive offense facing Pittsburgh’s opportunistic defense.

Last 3 Games: 2-1 (W vs GB 34-31, L @ LAR 27-28, W vs CHI 34-17)

Detroit’s offense continues dominating despite the Rams loss. Jared Goff threw for 336 yards and 3 TDs against Chicago while Amon-Ra St. Brown posted another monster performance. More impressively, the Lions bounce back from losses exceptionally well, historically refusing to let stars struggle in consecutive weeks.

Offensively, Detroit ranks 1st in EPA/play (0.189) while leading the NFL at 32.4 PPG. Goff has completed 72% of passes for 3,987 yards with 31 TDs and 9 INTs. Additionally, the Jahmyr Gibbs-David Montgomery tandem provides elite versatility with 2,418 combined scrimmage yards. St. Brown’s 1,473 receiving yards rank 2nd in the NFL.

Defensively, the Lions rank 9th in EPA/play allowed but struggle against receivers, allowing the 2nd-most WR fantasy points. Four consecutive opposing WRs reached 26.5 fantasy points. However, Detroit generates 38 sacks (10th) despite inconsistent pressure.

Key Stats: 32.4 PPG (1st) | 0.189 EPA/play (1st) | 9-5 ATS

Last 3 Games: 1-2 (L @ CIN 17-44, W vs CLE 27-14, L vs PHI 13-27)

Pittsburgh’s offense has sputtered recently, averaging just 19.0 PPG over their last three games. Rodgers threw for just 191 yards against Philadelphia, exposing declining arm strength. Nevertheless, the ground game provides consistency with Jaylen Warren averaging 4.8 YPC.

Statistically, Pittsburgh ranks 24th in offensive EPA/play (-0.024) while averaging 21.3 PPG (19th). Rodgers has completed 63% of passes for 3,145 yards with 20 TDs and 14 INTs. Furthermore, DK Metcalf provides the primary receiving threat with deep-ball ability. The rushing attack ranks 14th at 124.3 YPG.

Defensively, the Steelers rank 8th in EPA/play allowed, surrendering 20.8 PPG (10th). Without T.J. Watt (lung), their pass rush loses its elite edge presence. Additionally, they rank 11th against the run at 108.9 YPG allowed but struggle in coverage, allowing 233 pass YPG (18th).

Key Stats: 21.3 PPG (19th) | -0.024 EPA/play (24th) | 8-6 ATS

Houston enters Week 16 at 9-5, currently holding an AFC playoff spot. The Texans need wins to secure their postseason positioning. Furthermore, their defense ranks 1st in sacks with 51, creating nightmare matchups for struggling offensive lines. A road blowout victory against Las Vegas would strengthen their playoff resume heading into the final weeks.

Meanwhile, Las Vegas sits at 2-12, eliminated and playing out the string. The Raiders show little offensive competence, averaging just 16.3 PPG (31st). Nevertheless, rookie TE Brock Bowers provides a rare bright spot with elite production. Additionally, Geno Smith returns from injury to start against Houston’s elite defense despite a disappointing 2-12 season.

Historically, Houston has dominated this series recently. The Texans won the last three meetings by an average margin of 17 points. Indeed, Las Vegas’ offensive line struggles (53 sacks allowed, T-1st most) directly plays into Houston’s elite pass rush strength.

Last 3 Games: 2-1 (W vs JAX 23-20, W @ ARI 35-21, L vs MIA 17-20)

Houston’s defense has carried them all season. They sacked Arizona’s QB 6 times while holding the Cardinals to 21 points. More impressively, C.J. Stroud threw for 289 yards and 3 TDs against Arizona, showing improved efficiency. The Texans’ defense creates turnovers at an elite rate.

Offensively, Houston ranks 17th in EPA/play while averaging 23.8 PPG (10th). Stroud has completed 67% of passes for 3,542 yards with 24 TDs and 10 INTs. Additionally, Nico Collins leads all WRs in yards per route run at 3.12, creating explosive plays. Woody Marks provides versatility in the backfield with 647 scrimmage yards.

Defensively, the Texans rank 2nd in EPA/play allowed, surrendering just 18.7 PPG (5th). Their pass rush ranks 1st with 51 sacks. Furthermore, they allow the 4th-fewest catches to WRs and only 8 TDs to the position. Las Vegas’ offensive line (53 sacks allowed) faces its toughest matchup.

Key Stats: 23.8 PPG (10th) | 0.033 EPA/play (17th) | 7-7 ATS

Last 3 Games: 0-3 (L vs DEN 16-29, L @ TB 13-28, L @ PHI 0-31)

Las Vegas’ offense ranks among the league’s worst. They averaged just 9.7 PPG over their last three games, including a shutout against Philadelphia. Nevertheless, Brock Bowers continues dominating at tight end with elite route-running and catch ability despite poor QB play. Smith returns after missing Week 15 with shoulder and back injuries.

Statistically, Las Vegas ranks 30th in offensive EPA/play (-0.158) while averaging 16.3 PPG (31st). Smith has completed 67% of passes for 2,648 yards with 16 TDs and 14 INTs. Furthermore, the offensive line allowed 53 sacks (T-1st most), creating impossible conditions. The Raiders rank 28th in rushing at 91.7 YPG.

Defensively, Las Vegas ranks 25th in EPA/play allowed, giving up 25.9 PPG (26th). They generate minimal pressure with 26 sacks (26th). Additionally, they rank 27th in third-down defense at 44% conversion rate allowed, failing to get off the field.

Key Stats: 16.3 PPG (31st) | -0.158 EPA/play (30th) | 6-8 ATS