NFL POWER RANKINGS – WEEK 16

TOP 3 OVERALL

1. LOS ANGELES RAMS (↑1)

Power Rating: 1.825 | EPA/Play: +0.156 | Success Rate: 53.7%

The Rams claim the top spot with the most balanced attack in football. Their offensive EPA/Play of +0.156 ranks first league-wide, driven by elite passing (0.228 Dropback EPA) and the best rushing success rate (52.4%) in the NFL. Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP level with a 54.6% Dropback SR. The defense ranks third in EPA/Play allowed (-0.085) and dominates the ground game, surrendering just -0.139 Rush EPA. LA’s 53.7% overall success rate reflects an offense that consistently stays ahead of schedule. This two-way dominance makes them the league’s most complete team entering the stretch run.

2. BUFFALO BILLS (↑1)

Power Rating: 1.482 | EPA/Play: +0.151 | Success Rate: 48.2%

Buffalo jumps to second behind Josh Allen’s nuclear efficiency. Their 0.255 Dropback EPA ranks second in the NFL, fueled by Allen’s ability to create explosive plays through the air. The Bills excel in structure, posting a 50.9% Dropback SR that keeps drives alive. While the rushing attack remains mediocre (0.013 Rush EPA), Allen’s legs and improved scheme compensate. The defense allows just 0.398 Success Rate to opponents, ninth-best in football. Buffalo’s ability to dominate through the air while limiting opponent success makes them a nightmare matchup. They’ve surged at the perfect time with Allen playing his best football.

3. GREEN BAY PACKERS (↓2)

Power Rating: 1.344 | EPA/Play: +0.150 | Success Rate: 48.2%

Green Bay slips to third but remains elite. Jordan Love leads the league’s best passing attack with a staggering 0.286 Dropback EPA—the highest mark in football. The 51.4% Dropback SR proves Love isn’t just hunting home runs but efficiently moving the chains. The rushing game struggles (-0.035 Rush EPA), but Love’s arm negates that weakness. Defensively, the Packers rank 13th in EPA/Play allowed (0.003), slightly above average. Their power rating dipped this week, suggesting variance in performance. However, Love’s excellence gives them a ceiling as high as anyone. The lack of a run game could hurt in playoff weather.

TOP 5 OFFENSE

1. GREEN BAY PACKERS

Dropback EPA: 0.286 | Dropback SR: 51.4% | Rush EPA: -0.035 | Rush SR: 43.8%

Jordan Love is cooking. The Packers lead all offenses in Dropback EPA by a wide margin. Love’s 51.4% Dropback SR shows he’s not just chucking deep balls but executing the full playbook. The rushing attack lags behind, but with Love’s arm talent, it doesn’t matter. Matt LaFleur schemes receivers open, and Love delivers.

2. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Dropback EPA: 0.263 | Dropback SR: 52.7% | Rush EPA: -0.124 | Rush SR: 36.0%

Drake Maye is transforming New England’s offense. Their 0.263 Dropback EPA ranks second, and the 52.7% Dropback SR leads the league. Maye’s arm strength and mobility unlock the entire playbook. The run game remains a disaster (-0.124 Rush EPA, 36.0% SR), forcing New England into a pass-heavy attack. But when your rookie QB throws like this, lean into it.

3. BUFFALO BILLS

Dropback EPA: 0.255 | Dropback SR: 50.9% | Rush EPA: 0.013 | Rush SR: 44.8%

Josh Allen is a one-man wrecking crew. Buffalo’s 0.255 Dropback EPA trails only the elite, backed by a 50.9% Dropback SR. Allen picks defenses apart presnap and delivers with pinpoint accuracy. The rushing attack is neutral (0.013 Rush EPA), but Allen’s legs provide additional dimensions. Joe Brady’s play-calling maximizes Allen’s skill set. This offense has no ceiling.

4. LOS ANGELES RAMS

Dropback EPA: 0.228 | Dropback SR: 54.6% | Rush EPA: 0.052 | Rush SR: 52.4%

The Rams balance aggression with efficiency. Stafford’s 54.6% Dropback SR leads all qualified passers, showing he’s hitting open targets consistently. The 0.228 Dropback EPA proves he’s still adding massive value downfield. Kyren Williams powers a dominant ground game with 52.4% Rush SR and 0.052 Rush EPA. Sean McVay’s scheme keeps defenders guessing. Complete offensive machine.

5. DETROIT LIONS

Dropback EPA: 0.195 | Dropback SR: 48.9% | Rush EPA: -0.013 | Rush SR: 40.8%

Detroit’s passing attack drives their offense. Jared Goff’s 0.195 Dropback EPA ranks fifth, and he’s operating Ben Johnson’s system with precision. The 48.9% Dropback SR is solid if unspectacular. The run game struggles (-0.013 Rush EPA) without David Montgomery’s power. Still, Goff’s efficiency and weapons like Amon-Ra St. Brown keep drives alive. Detroit scores in bunches when Goff is on.

TOP 5 DEFENSE

1. HOUSTON TEXANS

Defensive EPA/Play: -0.117 | Defensive SR: 39.8% | Pass Defense EPA: -0.123 | Rush Defense EPA: -0.106

Houston owns the league’s best defense across the board. They suffocate opposing offenses with -0.117 EPA/Play and a microscopic 39.8% Success Rate allowed. The pass rush generates -0.123 Dropback EPA against opponents, forcing quarterbacks into mistakes. The run defense (-0.106 Rush EPA) shuts down ground games completely. DeMeco Ryans has built a monster unit that wins with speed and discipline. Elite at every level.

2. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Defensive EPA/Play: -0.113 | Defensive SR: 40.0% | Pass Defense EPA: -0.069 | Rush Defense EPA: -0.201

Seattle’s defense dominates the run. Their -0.201 Rush EPA leads the NFL, making life miserable for opposing backs. The 40.0% Success Rate allowed ties Houston for second-best. While the pass defense is solid (-0.069 Dropback EPA), the run-stopping ability stands out. Mike Macdonald’s scheme forces teams one-dimensional, then unleashes the pass rush. Physical and fast.

3. LOS ANGELES RAMS

Defensive EPA/Play: -0.085 | Defensive SR: 41.5% | Pass Defense EPA: -0.054 | Rush Defense EPA: -0.139

The Rams play suffocating defense. Their -0.139 Rush EPA ranks second in football, anchored by Aaron Donald’s interior dominance. The pass defense (-0.054 Dropback EPA) creates negative plays with pressure. The 41.5% Success Rate allowed keeps offenses behind schedule. Raheem Morris deserves credit—this unit is the foundation of LA’s championship push. They win at the line of scrimmage.

4. CLEVELAND BROWNS

Defensive EPA/Play: -0.080 | Defensive SR: 38.7% | Pass Defense EPA: -0.038 | Rush Defense EPA: -0.136

Cleveland’s defense keeps them competitive despite offensive struggles. The 38.7% Success Rate allowed is third-best in the league. Their -0.136 Rush EPA stifles running backs, while Myles Garrett anchors the pass rush. The -0.080 EPA/Play proves opponents struggle to score. Jim Schwartz’s aggressive scheme creates chaos. If only the offense could match this energy.

5. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Defensive EPA/Play: -0.075 | Defensive SR: 41.6% | Pass Defense EPA: -0.066 | Rush Defense EPA: -0.091

The Chargers field a balanced, disciplined defense. Their -0.066 Dropback EPA creates negative plays in the passing game, while -0.091 Rush EPA slows ground attacks. The 41.6% Success Rate allowed reflects consistent execution. Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa pressure quarterbacks, and the secondary plays tight coverage. Brandon Staley’s defense gives LA a foundation to build on.

BIGGEST MOVERS

UP ⬆️

HOUSTON TEXANS (↑7 to #19) Houston surged seven spots with a massive +0.452 Power Rating jump. Their defense leads the NFL (-0.117 EPA/Play), and C.J. Stroud’s offense is finding rhythm. The 39.8% Success Rate allowed by the defense is best in football. DeMeco Ryans’ unit carried them through early offensive struggles, and now both sides are clicking. Playoff contender.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (↑4 to #20) Tampa jumped four spots with a +0.245 Power Rating increase. Baker Mayfield is playing winning football, and the defense improved significantly. The Bucs are hitting their stride at the perfect time in the NFC South race. Mayfield’s efficiency (0.094 Dropback EPA) combined with improved run defense makes them dangerous.

DENVER BRONCOS (↑2 to #13) Denver climbed two spots with Bo Nix maturing. Their +0.103 Power Rating increase reflects defensive consistency (-0.042 EPA/Play) and Nix’s growth (0.063 Dropback EPA). Sean Payton’s scheme is clicking, and the Broncos are sneaky good. They’re alive in the AFC West race.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (↑2 to #16) Jacksonville moved up two spots with a +0.177 Power Rating jump. Trevor Lawrence is playing cleaner football, and the defense (-0.060 EPA/Play, seventh-best) keeps them in games. The Jags aren’t dead yet in the AFC South. Their -0.123 Rush EPA on defense is elite.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (↑2 to #12) Pittsburgh rose two spots with defensive improvements. Their +0.100 Power Rating increase reflects consistent play on both sides. The Steelers grind out wins with defense and a functional offense. Russell Wilson brings stability under center. AFC North remains wide open.

DOWN ⬇️

CINCINNATI BENGALS (↓8 to #25) Cincinnati plummeted eight spots with a brutal -0.326 Power Rating collapse. Joe Burrow is throwing well (0.234 Dropback EPA against them defensively means opponents are shredding them), but the defense is historically bad. They allow 0.159 EPA/Play (worst in NFL) and a 49.9% Success Rate. The Bengals can’t stop anyone. Their season is over.

NEW YORK JETS (↓2 to #29) The Jets dropped two spots with a -0.222 Power Rating decline. Aaron Rodgers looks cooked (-0.085 Dropback EPA), and the defense crumbled (0.121 EPA/Play allowed, 28th). The 42.4% Dropback SR shows they can’t execute basic plays. This team quit. Rock bottom.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (↓2 to #3) The Packers fell two spots despite elite offense. Their -0.371 Power Rating drop stems from defensive variance (0.003 EPA/Play allowed). The defense went from solid to average, which hurts overall power ranking. Still a top-three team, but the defense must stabilize.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (↓2 to #14) Washington slipped two spots with a -0.142 Power Rating decline. Jayden Daniels cooled off, and the defense regressed (0.147 EPA/Play allowed, 31st). The 50.6% Dropback SR allowed is awful. They’re falling out of playoff position.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (↓2 to #24) The Chargers dropped two spots with a -0.125 Power Rating decrease. The offense flatlined (-0.007 EPA/Play) despite a strong defense. Justin Herbert is forcing throws (0.033 Dropback EPA), and the run game is dead (-0.073 Rush EPA). One-dimensional offense killed them.

BOTTOM 5

28. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (↑1)

Power Rating: -1.011 | EPA/Play: -0.093 | Success Rate: 43.3%

Minnesota edges up one spot but remains deeply flawed. The offense manages just -0.093 EPA/Play, ranking 27th. Sam Darnold’s -0.101 Dropback EPA shows he’s hurting the team. The 42.7% Dropback SR proves they can’t execute consistently. The defense is mediocre (-0.036 EPA/Play), not good enough to carry this offense. The Vikings are cooked.

29. NEW YORK JETS (↓2)

Power Rating: -1.165 | EPA/Play: -0.096 | Success Rate: 42.2%

The Jets are imploding. Their -0.096 EPA/Play reflects offensive futility under Aaron Rodgers. The 42.4% Dropback SR is fifth-worst in football. Rodgers looks washed (-0.085 Dropback EPA). Defensively, they’re a disaster (0.121 EPA/Play allowed), ranking 28th. The 42.2% Success Rate shows nothing works. This franchise needs a complete reset.

30. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (—)

Power Rating: -1.715 | EPA/Play: -0.180 | Success Rate: 39.7%

Las Vegas remains stuck in 30th with catastrophic offensive ineptitude. Their -0.180 EPA/Play ranks third-worst, and the 39.7% Success Rate is brutal. The rush attack is historically bad (-0.304 Rush EPA, dead last). Aidan O’Connell (-0.117 Dropback EPA) can’t function behind a broken line. The defense allows 0.061 EPA/Play. No signs of life.

31. TENNESSEE TITANS (↑1)

Power Rating: -1.733 | EPA/Play: -0.151 | Success Rate: 38.3%

Tennessee climbs one spot but remains awful. Their 38.3% Success Rate is second-worst in the NFL. Will Levis is a disaster (-0.169 Dropback EPA, 38.7% Dropback SR). The offense generates just -0.151 EPA/Play. Defensively, they’re worst in football (0.110 EPA/Play allowed), surrendering 0.211 Dropback EPA. Brian Callahan faces a long rebuild. Tanking for the #1 pick is the only goal.

32. CLEVELAND BROWNS (↓1)

Power Rating: -2.173 | EPA/Play: -0.181 | Success Rate: 34.4%

Cleveland hits rock bottom with the worst offensive season in modern history. Their -0.181 EPA/Play ties for second-worst, but the 34.4% Success Rate is historically bad. Deshaun Watson (-0.210 Dropback EPA, 35.1% Dropback SR) is the worst starting QB in football. They can’t run (-0.131 Rush EPA) or pass. The elite defense (-0.080 EPA/Play) can’t overcome this offense. Kevin Stefanski needs a new QB immediately. This is unwatchable football.

STAT LEGEND

EPA/Play (Expected Points Added per Play): Measures the value a team adds on each play compared to average. Positive numbers are good for offense, negative for defense.

Success Rate (SR): Percentage of plays that are “successful” (gaining 40% of yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.

Dropback EPA: EPA on passing plays and scrambles. Elite offenses exceed 0.15, elite defenses stay under -0.05.

Dropback SR: Success rate on dropback plays. NFL average is around 47-48%.

Rush EPA: EPA on designed rushing plays. Positive numbers indicate above-average ground games.

Rush SR: Success rate on rushing plays. League average hovers around 42-44%.