1. Jacksonville Jaguars ▲ 4 places

A 13-4 record last season earned Jacksonville the top spot in these rankings, even though that run ended earlier than the team would have liked, with a wild-card exit. The Jaguars carry 0.0884 EPA per play as a blended figure from this season and last, reflecting sustained performance across both years.

The defense is the engine here — Jacksonville fields one of the league's best defenses, and that unit is doing the heavier lifting. The offense is no liability, ranking among the top eight in the league, but there is a clear gap between a genuinely elite defensive side and a very good but not quite elite offensive one.

A 34-10 home win over the Browns was the kind of performance that locks in a top ranking, but road games against teams like the Broncos expose whether that dominance travels. If the Jacksonville offense stalls away from home and Denver forces a closer contest, the pressure on this ranking grows quickly. Holding that margin of control on the road would be the clearest argument for staying right here.

2. Seattle Seahawks no change

A 13-10 home win over the Patriots opens the season with a victory, though the margin was tight. Seattle travels to face the Cardinals in Week 2.

3. Kansas City Chiefs ▲ 11 places

The gap between this team and the teams above it is razor-thin. The Chiefs carry 0.0633 EPA per play in results blended across this season and last, and they back that with a top-eight defense and an above-average offense. What they have not yet done is force the teams directly ahead of them to look over their shoulders — but the margin separating them is not large.

A 31-10 home win over the Broncos opened the season with a statement, and the Chiefs now prepare to host the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2.

4. San Francisco 49ers ▲ 7 places

A 27-7 road win over the Rams is a strong opening statement, holding Los Angeles to a single score while putting up a comfortable margin. The Dolphins come to Santa Clara in Week 2 as the next test of whether that performance holds up at home.

5. Buffalo Bills ▼ 1 place

One of the league's best offenses keeps Buffalo in the conversation with the teams above, but a below-average defense is the clearest gap separating them from the top four. The Bills carry 0.0581 EPA per play blended across this season and last, a figure that reflects both the firepower they bring and the defensive weight dragging against it. Until that defensive unit closes the gap, the ceiling stays just out of reach.

A 36-31 road win over the Texans opens the season with a statement, and the Bills now return home to face the Lions in Week 2.

32. Cleveland Browns ▼ 2 places

A 5-12 record and a missed playoff berth last season left Cleveland at the bottom of these rankings, and nothing since has pushed them off that floor. The Browns have slipped 2 spots to land at the very back of the pack, a reflection of how little ground has been gained since that disappointing finish.

The defense is carrying whatever credibility this ranking still holds. There is a wide gap between the two sides of the ball: one of the league's weakest offenses against a middling defense is a combination that drags a roster toward the bottom of any honest assessment. Until the offense finds a way to contribute, the defense is simply limiting damage rather than driving wins.

A 10-point showing in a 34-point loss to the Jaguars leaves little room to argue this ranking is too harsh. Heading to Tampa Bay in Week 2, the offense would need a dramatic turnaround just to keep the score competitive, let alone climb out of last place.

28. Miami Dolphins no change

A 13-27 road loss to the Raiders opens the 2026 season on a sour note, leaving Miami at 0-1 with little margin for error. The Dolphins head back out on the road in Week 2 to face the San Francisco 49ers.

29. Las Vegas Raiders ▲ 2 places

An above-average defense is the one thing keeping the Raiders off the floor in a season where almost nothing else has gone right. Their offense ranks among the league's weakest, and the team carries -0.0652 EPA per play as a blended figure across this season and last. That defensive unit deserves credit for preventing this from becoming a complete collapse.

A 27-13 home win over the Dolphins puts the Raiders at 1-0 to open the year. They head to Los Angeles in Week 2 to face the Chargers.

30. New York Jets ▲ 2 places

Two wins separating them from the very bottom of these rankings is the clearest argument the Jets can make for themselves right now. Both the offense and the defense grade out as below average, and the team's blended EPA per play sits at -0.0708. That number does not describe a team trending up, but it does reflect something marginally better than the teams below them — and that margin is all that separates New York from the floor.

A 23-10 road win over the Titans is a clean opening statement, with the defense holding Tennessee to just a field goal's worth of scoring beyond a single touchdown. The Green Bay Packers come to town in Week 2.

31. Tennessee Titans ▼ 2 places

A 10-23 home loss to the Jets opened the season on a sour note, leaving the Titans at 0-1 with little room for error early. The Philadelphia Eagles come to town in Week 2, offering a chance to respond quickly.

6. Baltimore Ravens ▲ 10 places

A 41-23 road win over the Colts opened the season on a strong note, with the Ravens scoring freely while keeping Indianapolis well in check. The Saints come to town in Week 2 for what will be an early test of whether that performance holds up at home.

14. Arizona Cardinals ▲ 8 places

A 26-14 road win over the Chargers gives the Cardinals a clean 1-0 start to the season. They return home in Week 2 to host the Seahawks.

16. Minnesota Vikings ▲ 7 places

A 39-22 home win over the Packers gives Minnesota an early statement result to open the season. The Vikings head to Chicago in Week 2 looking to stay unbeaten.

12. New England Patriots ▼ 9 places

A 10-13 road loss to the Seahawks opened the year with little offensive output and leaves the Patriots searching for answers at 0-1. The Steelers come to Foxborough in Week 2 for an early opportunity to get right.

18. Indianapolis Colts ▼ 11 places

A 23-41 home loss to the Ravens opened the season, leaving the Colts at 0-1. They travel to face the Chiefs in Week 2.

19. Denver Broncos ▼ 10 places

A ten-spot drop reflects how badly things have gone wrong on both sides of the ball. The Broncos carry a below-average offense and a middling defense, and the blended play this season has pushed them to -0.0135 EPA per play. A team that went 14-3 and reached the conference championship a year ago now looks like a shadow of that version.

A 10-31 road loss to the Chiefs is a rough way to open the year, and the margin leaves little to soften the blow. The Jaguars come to Denver in Week 2, giving the Broncos a chance to get on the board at home.