1. San Francisco 49ers no change

Holding the top spot for another week takes more than a hot stretch, and a 12-5 finish last season backs up the claim. The 49ers went deep into the playoffs before falling in the divisional round, a run that cemented their standing as the class of the league heading into 2026.

One of the league's best offenses is doing the heavy lifting here, and the gap between the two sides of the ball is significant. The defense is below average, meaning San Francisco is built to outscore opponents rather than stop them. That kind of imbalance can win games when everything is clicking, but it also creates a narrow margin for error.

Holding a 24-14 result over the Broncos shows the kind of control that keeps a team at the top, but an unbeaten record invites the hardest tests. A road trip to Seattle in Week 5 is exactly that — the Seahawks have every reason to make a statement against the only 4-0 side in the league. A stumble away from home would open the door for the teams just below to close the gap, while another clean win would make this ranking very difficult to argue with.

2. Kansas City Chiefs ▲ 1 place

What separates the Chiefs from the top spot is razor-thin. They carry a top-eight offense and an above-average defense, and 0.0782 EPA per play — blended across this season and last — puts them just a breath behind the team ahead. The gap is real but not wide.

A 30-27 road win over the Raiders keeps the Chiefs undefeated at 4-0, and they have outscored opponents 118-77 on the season. The Los Angeles Chargers come to Arrowhead in Week 6 for what figures to be the division's most important matchup of the young year.

3. Denver Broncos ▲ 1 place

4. Jacksonville Jaguars ▲ 1 place

A 22-17 road win over the Bengals keeps the Jaguars at 3-1 and reinforces that this team can win away from home. The Eagles come to town in Week 5 for what shapes up as a genuine test of how far Jacksonville has come.

5. Los Angeles Rams ▲ 1 place

32. Miami Dolphins no change

Both sides of the ball are pulling this ranking down equally. The Dolphins carry one of the league's weakest offenses and one of the league's weakest defenses, leaving no unit to offset the other. There is no stronger half to build around — the roster is struggling across the board.

Scoring 10 points in a loss to the Vikings illustrates how little margin exists at the bottom of these rankings. A home date with the Bengals in Week 5 offers a chance to generate offense and get into the win column, but anything short of a competitive, complete performance will make it very hard to move off 32.

28. Los Angeles Chargers ▲ 1 place

A 23-30 road loss to the Seahawks extends a difficult stretch for a team now sitting at 0-4, having been outscored 106 to 67 on the season. The Broncos come to SoFi Stadium in Week 5 for a divisional matchup that carries real urgency.

29. New York Jets ▼ 1 place

A 12-23 road loss to the Bears continues a difficult stretch for a team now sitting at 1-3. The Cleveland Browns come to town in Week 5 offering a chance to stop the slide.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers no change

A middling defense is what separates the Buccaneers from the very bottom of these rankings. The offense has been below average, and the team's blended play comes in at -0.0498 EPA per play. That defense at least keeps opponents honest, which is more than the offense has managed to do on its own.

A 14-17 home loss to the Packers extends the winless run to 0-4, with the Buccaneers now being outscored 76 points for against 96 against across those four games. A road trip to face the Cowboys in Week 5 offers the next chance to change that.

31. Tennessee Titans no change

A 18-24 road loss to the Ravens extends the skid to 0-4, with the Titans outscored 83-55 on the season. The Houston Texans visit in Week 5, offering a chance to break into the win column at home.

13. Cleveland Browns ▲ 11 places

Defense has driven this climb. Cleveland's defense ranks among the top eight in the league, and that unit has done enough to offset one of the league's weakest offenses and pull the Browns up 11 spots. The team carries -0.0589 EPA per play as a blend of this season's play and last season, a number that reflects the drag of that struggling offense but also the cushion a stout defense provides.

A 27-24 home win over the Steelers gives Cleveland the latest piece of evidence that this group can grind out close games. At 3-1, the Browns have been outscored 95 to 81 on the season but continue to find ways to win. A road trip to face the Jets in Week 5 will test whether that resilience holds away from home.

14. Carolina Panthers ▲ 11 places

7. New England Patriots ▲ 11 places

A road win over the Bills, 29-26, is the kind of result that quiets doubters fast. The Raiders come to Foxborough in Week 5 as the next test of whether that performance signals something real.

23. Philadelphia Eagles ▼ 10 places

26. New Orleans Saints ▼ 15 places

A 24-45 home loss to the Falcons is the kind of result that raises serious questions, and at 1-3 the Saints have been outscored 128-105 on the season. The Vikings come to the Superdome in Week 5.

27. Washington Commanders ▼ 11 places

Both sides of the ball have broken down to drive this fall. Washington carries a middling offense and one of the league's weakest defenses, and that combination has pushed the team to -0.0494 EPA per play blended across this season and last. The defensive collapse in particular has left little margin for error when the offense sputters.

A 13-30 home loss to the Colts continued a difficult stretch, and the 1-3 record reflects a team that has allowed 122 points while scoring only 88. The Commanders host the Giants in Week 5 with a chance to stop the slide.