Paul Waring Grabs the Lead, But the Real Story Is Still Being Written
HOUSTON — Paul Waring shot a 63 on Thursday to take the first-round lead at the Children’s Houston Open 2026. However, the probability board tells a very different story about who is actually favored to win this week.
Round 1 Recap: Children’s Houston Open 2026
Waring’s 63 was the low round of Thursday. He sits at 7-under, one clear of Gary Woodland, who posted a 64 to move into solo second.
Three players share third at 5-under: Sam Burns, Michael Brennan, and Tom Hoge. All three carded 65s.
Meanwhile, a pack of five players sits at 4-under. That group includes Kurt Kitayama, Stephan Jaeger, Marco Penge, Matt Wallace, and Zecheng Dou. All five shot 66.
As we noted in our Texas Children’s Houston Open preview, Memorial Park Golf Course rewards ball-strikers who can consistently find greens. Thursday confirmed that pattern early.
Where the Leaderboard Sits After Round 1
| Player | Position | Score | R1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waring, Paul | 1 | -7 | 63 |
| Woodland, Gary | 2 | -6 | 64 |
| Brennan, Michael | T3 | -5 | 65 |
| Burns, Sam | T3 | -5 | 65 |
| Hoge, Tom | T3 | -5 | 65 |
| Dou, Zecheng | T6 | -4 | 66 |
| Jaeger, Stephan | T6 | -4 | 66 |
| Kitayama, Kurt | T6 | -4 | 66 |
| Penge, Marco | T6 | -4 | 66 |
| Wallace, Matt | T6 | -4 | 66 |
| Dumont De Chassart, Adrien | T11 | -3 | 67 |
| Eckroat, Austin | T11 | -3 | 67 |
| Finau, Tony | T11 | -3 | 67 |
| Fowler, Rickie | T11 | -3 | 67 |
| Hammer, Cole | T11 | -3 | 67 |
Where the Tournament Stands Now
Waring leads, but his win probability sits at just 1.7%. That tells you how wide open this tournament really is.
Sam Burns is the probability leader at 8.1%. He sits two shots back of Waring. The model trusts his overall game more than his position suggests.
Gary Woodland is second on the leaderboard and second on the probability board at 6.4%. He is one shot back. That combination of position and probability makes him one of the most compelling names in the field.
Kurt Kitayama follows at 6.0% despite sitting three shots off the lead. Furthermore, Min Woo Lee checks in at 5.1% — even from T31 at 2-under. That number stands out. He is five shots back but the model still rates him a serious contender.
The Probability Board in Full
| Player | Position | Score | Back | Win % | Top 5 % | Top 10 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burns, Sam | T3 | -5 | 2 | 8.1% | 31.1% | 46.7% |
| Woodland, Gary | 2 | -6 | 1 | 6.4% | 26.9% | 41.4% |
| Kitayama, Kurt | T6 | -4 | 3 | 6.0% | 25.3% | 39.8% |
| Lee, Min Woo | T31 | -2 | 5 | 5.1% | 22.8% | 36.7% |
| Penge, Marco | T6 | -4 | 3 | 4.9% | 22.0% | 35.5% |
| Brennan, Michael | T3 | -5 | 2 | 4.5% | 20.7% | 34.0% |
| Scott, Adam | T11 | -3 | 4 | 3.4% | 17.7% | 30.4% |
| Fowler, Rickie | T11 | -3 | 4 | 3.1% | 16.7% | 29.6% |
| Jaeger, Stephan | T6 | -4 | 3 | 2.9% | 15.7% | 27.8% |
| Theegala, Sahith | T11 | -3 | 4 | 2.8% | 14.9% | 26.5% |
| Gotterup, Chris | T31 | -2 | 5 | 2.7% | 14.7% | 25.8% |
| Smalley, Alex | T11 | -3 | 4 | 2.6% | 14.4% | 25.7% |
| Stevens, Sam | T11 | -3 | 4 | 2.3% | 14.0% | 25.7% |
| Hojgaard, Nicolai | T31 | -2 | 5 | 2.3% | 13.1% | 24.0% |
| Wallace, Matt | T6 | -4 | 3 | 2.1% | 12.6% | 23.4% |
| Knapp, Jake | T59 | -1 | 6 | 2.0% | 11.7% | 21.2% |
| Thorbjornsen, Michael | T31 | -2 | 5 | 1.9% | 11.9% | 22.0% |
| Hoey, Rico | T11 | -3 | 4 | 1.8% | 10.9% | 20.8% |
| Finau, Tony | T11 | -3 | 4 | 1.7% | 11.0% | 20.9% |
| Waring, Paul | 1 | -7 | 0 | 1.7% | 10.2% | 18.8% |
| Dou, Zecheng | T6 | -4 | 3 | 1.6% | 10.7% | 20.4% |
| Im, Sungjae | T11 | -3 | 4 | 1.5% | 10.5% | 20.4% |
| Schmid, Matti | T11 | -3 | 4 | 1.5% | 9.8% | 19.1% |
| Mitchell, Keith | T31 | -2 | 5 | 1.4% | 9.7% | 18.7% |
| Dumont De Chassart, Adrien | T11 | -3 | 4 | 1.4% | 9.6% | 18.7% |
| Hojgaard, Rasmus | T31 | -2 | 5 | 1.3% | 9.3% | 17.8% |
| Roy, Kevin | T11 | -3 | 4 | 1.1% | 8.6% | 17.4% |
| Svensson, Jesper | T11 | -3 | 4 | 1.1% | 7.5% | 15.2% |
| Moore, Taylor | T11 | -3 | 4 | 1.1% | 7.9% | 16.0% |
Projections powered by DataGolf data.
Probability Landscape
The highest win probability in this field is 8.1%. That belongs to Burns. For context, a dominant favorite in a weaker field might show 20% or higher. Nobody here is anywhere close to that.
Instead, this is a classic spread-the-field tournament. Fourteen different players show at least 2% win probability. That means one in every fifty simulations produces a completely different winner across a very large group.
By contrast, Waring leads by a shot. However, his 1.7% win probability ranks him 20th on the board. That gap between leaderboard position and probability is worth understanding.
Market Opportunities
The edge we flagged in Wednesday’s market analysis pointed toward ball-strikers with course history. Two matchup lines stand out on Friday.
Stephan Jaeger vs. Michael Brennan
Jaeger is priced at -130 on DraftKings. The fair line based on projected probabilities is -104. That is a 5.6% edge in Jaeger’s favor. Both players sit at 4-under heading into Friday.
Rickie Fowler vs. Marco Penge
Fowler comes in at -128. His fair number sits at -103. That produces a 5.4% edge. Fowler is at 3-under. Penge is at 4-under.
Matchup Market Summary
| Player | Opponent | Book | Odds | DG Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaeger, Stephan | Brennan, Michael | DraftKings | -130 | -104 | 5.6% |
| Fowler, Rickie | Penge, Marco | DraftKings | -128 | -103 | 5.4% |
Volatility Watch
Some players carry a higher standard deviation in their projected outcomes. Standard deviation measures how unpredictable a player’s scoring is from round to round. Higher numbers mean wilder swings — both up and down.
Paul Waring tops this list at 2.795. He leads the tournament. However, that high volatility number says he is equally capable of a big drop on Friday.
Marco Penge sits at 2.765. Jesper Svensson follows at 2.764. Notably, Chris Gotterup checks in at 2.761 from T31. His combination of volatility and current position makes him a name to watch on Friday.
Volatility Rankings
| Player | Std. Dev. |
|---|---|
| Waring, Paul | 2.795 |
| Penge, Marco | 2.765 |
| Svensson, Jesper | 2.764 |
| Gotterup, Chris | 2.761 |
| Brennan, Michael | 2.757 |
| Knapp, Jake | 2.744 |
| Hojgaard, Rasmus | 2.738 |
| Schmid, Matti | 2.735 |
New Angles
Friday’s second round will determine who is real and who got hot on Thursday.
Waring’s lead is real. However, his probability ranking tells you the field does not trust him to hold it. High volatility leaders tend to fall back into the pack. That does not mean he will. It means the odds say it is more likely than not.
Additionally, Min Woo Lee at 5.1% from five back is worth tracking. His probability number is the fourth-highest in the field. That level of model confidence from that position typically means strong underlying ball-striking numbers.
Sam Burns at 8.1% is the name to watch above everyone else. He holds the top probability spot heading into Friday. Two shots back with three rounds to play is a very manageable position.
At the same time, this tournament remains genuinely wide open. No single player controls it. Friday will tighten that picture significantly.
Follow the live scoring at the PGA Tour leaderboard and dig into the full model at DataGolf.
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