Sungjae Im Holds the Key at Innisbrook — But Sunday Is Never a Guarantee
The Valspar Championship 2026 heads into its final round with Sungjae Im sitting alone at the top. He leads by two shots. The board behind him is packed, competitive, and very much alive. As we noted in our Valspar Championship preview, Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course punishes mistakes and rewards patience. Sunday will test both.
Valspar Championship 2026: Where the Tournament Stands
| Player | Position | Score | R3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Im, Sungjae | 1 | -11 | 69 |
| Lipsky, David | T2 | -9 | 70 |
| Snedeker, Brandt | T2 | -9 | 67 |
| Fitzpatrick, Matt | T4 | -8 | 68 |
| Penge, Marco | T4 | -8 | 68 |
| Dumont De Chassart, Adrien | T6 | -6 | 67 |
| Kim, S.H. | T6 | -6 | 67 |
| Blanchet, Chandler | T8 | -5 | 73 |
| Conners, Corey | T8 | -5 | 70 |
| Kim, Tom | T8 | -5 | 69 |
| Finau, Tony | T11 | -4 | 71 |
| Hoey, Rico | T11 | -4 | 70 |
| Koepka, Brooks | T11 | -4 | 71 |
| Smith, Jordan | T11 | -4 | 72 |
| Woodland, Gary | T11 | -4 | 71 |
Im shot 69 on Saturday to extend his lead. He has been the steadiest player all week. David Lipsky and Brandt Snedeker both sit at -9. Matt Fitzpatrick and Marco Penge are one further back at -8. There are five players within three shots of the lead. That is a real leaderboard.
Valspar Championship 2026: Where Things Stand Heading Into Sunday
Im leads, but the margin is thin enough that one bad stretch could flip everything. Copperhead does not offer easy birdie holes. Meanwhile, the players chasing him all have reasons to feel confident.
Snedeker’s Round Stands Out
Brandt Snedeker shot 67 on Saturday. That was the best round of the day among the top-five players. At 44 years old, he is playing some of the best golf of his recent career. He has won on this course before. That matters heading into the final round.
Fitzpatrick Has the Pedigree
Matt Fitzpatrick carries a 20.8% win probability — second only to Im. He is three back, which is manageable on a course this difficult. Fitzpatrick has won a major. He knows how to close. Still, he will need Im to stumble.
Probability Landscape
| Player | Position | Score | Back | Win % | Top 5 % | Top 10 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Im, Sungjae | 1 | -11 | 0 | 40.7% | 89.1% | 96.5% |
| Fitzpatrick, Matt | T4 | -8 | 3 | 20.8% | 78.5% | 92.1% |
| Lipsky, David | T2 | -9 | 2 | 12.0% | 68.1% | 87.3% |
| Snedeker, Brandt | T2 | -9 | 2 | 9.8% | 63.5% | 84.9% |
| Penge, Marco | T4 | -8 | 3 | 9.0% | 59.1% | 81.3% |
| Kim, S.H. | T6 | -6 | 5 | 1.5% | 26.8% | 54.2% |
| Dumont De Chassart, Adrien | T6 | -6 | 5 | 1.2% | 24.1% | 50.9% |
| Conners, Corey | T8 | -5 | 6 | 1.0% | 23.3% | 50.6% |
Im has the largest win probability by a wide margin at 40.7%. However, five players carry at least a 9% chance of winning. That tells you the board is not settled. Lipsky sits two back at 12.0%. Snedeker is right with him at 9.8%.
Penge at 9.0% is interesting. He is three back but has quietly built a consistent week. Beyond that, the players six or more shots back face a steep climb on a course that rarely gives you five or six birdies in a stretch.
Market Opportunities
The edge we flagged in Wednesday’s market analysis centered on Innisbrook separating players quickly on the back nine. That held up through three rounds.
| Player | Opponent | Book | Odds | DG Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dahmen, Joel | Kim, Michael | Caesars | -135 | -109 | 5.4% |
| Woodland, Gary | Smith, Jordan | BetMGM | +105 | +130 | 5.4% |
| Yu, Kevin | Hoey, Rico | BetMGM | +100 | +124 | 5.3% |
| Norlander, Henrik | Bradley, Keegan | Caesars | +155 | +193 | 5.1% |
| Jaeger, Stephan | Chatfield, Davis | DraftKings | -164 | -133 | 5.1% |
The top matchup edges are clustered around 5%. That is not a large gap, but it is consistent. Woodland versus Smith stands out. Woodland sits at T11 and is getting a plus price. The fair number suggests he is the more likely winner of that head-to-head. Notably, the Norlander-Bradley matchup offers a +155 price on a player the numbers like at +193.
Volatility Watch
| Player | Std. Dev. |
|---|---|
| Penge, Marco | 2.82 |
| Kim, S.H. | 2.76 |
| Dumont De Chassart, Adrien | 2.74 |
| Im, Sungjae | 2.70 |
| Fitzpatrick, Matt | 2.69 |
| Conners, Corey | 2.69 |
| Lipsky, David | 2.65 |
| Snedeker, Brandt | 2.65 |
Penge carries the highest volatility on the board. That means his Sunday score could swing wildly in either direction. Kim, S.H. and Dumont De Chassart are right behind him. Because of this, those three are the most likely players to either shoot themselves into contention or out of it entirely.
Im has the fourth-highest standard deviation. That is a reminder that his two-shot lead is not a lock. He has shown the same score variance as the players chasing him. On the other hand, Snedeker and Lipsky carry the lowest deviation among the top group. That suggests a steadier, quieter round from both.
One Bold Prediction
Brandt Snedeker wins the Valspar Championship 2026.
He has the local knowledge. He posted the best round Saturday among the leading group. His volatility number is the lowest in the field among contenders — meaning he is the least likely to blow up. Im is the favorite for good reason, but Snedeker is set up perfectly to post a number early and apply pressure. If Im makes two or three bogeys on Copperhead’s brutal back nine, Snedeker will be right there.
That is not a far-fetched outcome. That is Sunday golf at its most unpredictable.
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