No One Has Run Away Yet — And That Makes the Weekend Interesting
The Valspar Championship 2026 has reached the halfway point, and the leaderboard is wide open. Sungjae Im holds a one-shot lead, but six players sit within two strokes and a dozen more are close enough to make a move. As we noted in our Valspar Championship preview, Innisbrook rewards patience — and this weekend will test exactly that.
Valspar Championship 2026: Round 2 Recap
Im Holds On, But the Pack Is Right There
Sungjae Im shot a second-round 69 to reach nine under par. That is the lead, but it is not a big one. David Lipsky fired a 65 — the best round of the day — and sits just one back at eight under. Chandler Blanchet and Doug Ghim are both at seven under after rounds of 66 and 67.
Meanwhile, a crowd of players at five under are still very much in this. Matt Fitzpatrick, Alex Smalley, Jordan Smith, Marco Penge, and Brandt Snedeker all sit at T5. That is a deep, talented group with nothing to lose heading into Saturday.
A Sneaky Good Round Near the Bottom
Danny Walker quietly posted a 64 on Friday. That moved him to four under and into a tie for tenth. However, he still trails Im by five shots. At this course, five shots is not impossible to make up — but he will need another low one to matter.
Brooks Koepka also made a move, shooting 67 to join the logjam at T10 on four under. By contrast, Brandt Snedeker had to grind through a 72 just to hold his spot at five under. He got there on Thursday and barely survived Friday.
Current Top 15 After Round 2
| Player | Position | Score | R2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Im, Sungjae | 1 | -9 | 69 |
| Lipsky, David | 2 | -8 | 65 |
| Blanchet, Chandler | T3 | -7 | 66 |
| Ghim, Doug | T3 | -7 | 67 |
| Fitzpatrick, Matt | T5 | -5 | 69 |
| Penge, Marco | T5 | -5 | 68 |
| Smalley, Alex | T5 | -5 | 69 |
| Smith, Jordan | T5 | -5 | 68 |
| Snedeker, Brandt | T5 | -5 | 72 |
| Bridgeman, Jacob | T10 | -4 | 70 |
| Conners, Corey | T10 | -4 | 69 |
| Finau, Tony | T10 | -4 | 69 |
| Koepka, Brooks | T10 | -4 | 67 |
| Walker, Danny | T10 | -4 | 64 |
| Woodland, Gary | T10 | -4 | 68 |
Valspar Championship 2026: Where the Tournament Stands Now
Im Is the Leader — But Nobody Is Safe
Im leads at nine under. His win probability sits at 19.9%, which sounds solid. Still, that means eight out of ten times, someone else wins. Lipsky is right behind him at 11.6% — sorry, that is Fitzpatrick at 11.6%, with Lipsky at 9.4%. The three of them are separated by just four shots at most.
Furthermore, there are names further down the board who carry real weight. Xander Schauffele sits at T31 and minus-two — seven back — but still carries a 3.0% win probability. That tells you something about how much scoring Innisbrook can allow on the weekend.
The Dangerous Names Lurking
Patrick Cantlay is at three under and T16. His win probability is 2.3%, but his top-ten probability is 33.6%. Jordan Spieth is also at three under with similar numbers. Neither player is out of it. In fact, both have the kind of game that tends to show up late on Sunday at a course that demands ball-striking precision.
Notably, Nicolai Hojgaard also sits at T16 with a 1.5% win probability. He is not a household name in the United States — but he has the game to go low on a links-style layout like this one.
Live Probability Board
| Player | Position | Score | Back | Win % | Top 5 % | Top 10 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Im, Sungjae | 1 | -9 | 0 | 19.9% | 58.9% | 76.0% |
| Fitzpatrick, Matt | T5 | -5 | 4 | 11.6% | 46.0% | 65.0% |
| Lipsky, David | 2 | -8 | 1 | 9.4% | 42.3% | 61.9% |
| Blanchet, Chandler | T3 | -7 | 2 | 7.3% | 36.5% | 56.3% |
| Ghim, Doug | T3 | -7 | 2 | 7.2% | 35.8% | 55.5% |
| Bridgeman, Jacob | T10 | -4 | 5 | 5.1% | 28.7% | 47.6% |
| Smalley, Alex | T5 | -5 | 4 | 4.1% | 24.5% | 42.7% |
| Smith, Jordan | T5 | -5 | 4 | 3.5% | 23.3% | 41.7% |
| Penge, Marco | T5 | -5 | 4 | 3.0% | 19.9% | 36.3% |
| Schauffele, Xander | T31 | -2 | 7 | 3.0% | 20.1% | 36.9% |
| Koepka, Brooks | T10 | -4 | 5 | 2.9% | 20.1% | 37.0% |
| Conners, Corey | T10 | -4 | 5 | 2.4% | 18.3% | 34.6% |
| Cantlay, Patrick | T16 | -3 | 6 | 2.3% | 17.8% | 33.6% |
| Spieth, Jordan | T16 | -3 | 6 | 1.6% | 13.7% | 28.0% |
| Hojgaard, Nicolai | T16 | -3 | 6 | 1.5% | 13.2% | 27.0% |
| Finau, Tony | T10 | -4 | 5 | 1.2% | 11.2% | 23.7% |
| Woodland, Gary | T10 | -4 | 5 | 1.2% | 10.6% | 23.3% |
| Castillo, Ricky | T16 | -3 | 6 | 1.1% | 9.9% | 22.7% |
| Snedeker, Brandt | T5 | -5 | 4 | 1.1% | 10.9% | 23.9% |
Probability Landscape
No Runaway Favorite
The numbers here tell a clear story. Im is the most likely winner — but at 19.9%, he is far from a lock. Fitzpatrick at 11.6% and Lipsky at 9.4% are genuine threats. Even Blanchet and Ghim at 7.3% and 7.2% are not long shots by any reasonable standard.
Add it all up and you have a race where the field still holds most of the probability. That is unusual by Saturday morning. Most events see the leader sitting at 30% or higher. Im has not cleared that bar. Because of this, almost any name in the top fifteen is a live threat.
Where the Real Upside Lives
Jacob Bridgeman stands out at T10. His win probability is 5.1%, but his top-ten percentage is 47.6%. That is a player who is likely to matter on Sunday even if he does not win. On the other hand, names like Tony Finau and Gary Woodland carry just over 1% win probability each despite sitting at four under. The math says they are running out of room.
Market Opportunities
The Wednesday market analysis flagged several spots where the books were mispriced. Some of those lines have shifted. However, the matchup market still shows value worth noting heading into the weekend.
Matchup Market
| Player | Opponent | Book | Odds | DG Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horschel, Billy | Kim, Tom | betmgm | -105 | +128 | 7.3% |
| Snedeker, Brandt | Woodland, Gary | draftkings | -108 | +121 | 6.8% |
| Yu, Kevin | Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus | betmgm | -105 | +124 | 6.7% |
| Finau, Tony | Bridgeman, Jacob | draftkings | +136 | +179 | 6.5% |
| Cantlay, Patrick | Lebioda, Hank | caesars | -260 | -192 | 6.5% |
| Skinns, David | Ford, David | betmgm | +120 | +157 | 6.5% |
| Thomas, Justin | Ryder, Sam | caesars | -260 | -198 | 5.8% |
| Koepka, Brooks | Walker, Danny | draftkings | -275 | -210 | 5.6% |
| Parry, John | VanDerLaan, John | caesars | -180 | -144 | 5.3% |
| Stanger, Jimmy | Salinda, Isaiah | caesars | -105 | +117 | 5.2% |
The biggest gap on the board belongs to Billy Horschel against Tom Kim. The book has Horschel at -105. The fair number says +128. That is a significant difference. Similarly, the Finau versus Bridgeman matchup stands out. Bridgeman has been steadier this week and the fair odds reflect that more than the book does.
Volatility Watch
The Players Most Likely to Swing Hard
Some players on this leaderboard could easily shoot 65 or 75 on Saturday. The volatility numbers below flag exactly that group. These are the names most likely to either shoot themselves into contention or fall completely out of the picture.
Volatility Watch
| Player | Std. Dev. |
|---|---|
| Penge, Marco | 2.82 |
| Woodland, Gary | 2.76 |
| Koepka, Brooks | 2.76 |
| Hojgaard, Nicolai | 2.75 |
| Finau, Tony | 2.74 |
| Schauffele, Xander | 2.74 |
| Castillo, Ricky | 2.73 |
| Smalley, Alex | 2.72 |
Marco Penge leads this list. He sits at five under and T5. However, a high variance round in either direction could completely reshape his weekend. Schauffele is particularly interesting here. He is seven back and at T31. That is too far back for a steady player to win. But Schauffele is not a steady player right now — he is a volatile one. That means a 63 on Saturday is not out of the question.
Koepka also appears near the top of this list. He has the power to go very low. At the same time, he can also go sideways in a hurry. Saturday will tell you quickly which version showed up at Innisbrook.
Weekend Storyline
Nobody Has Separated — And That Is the Point
This is still anybody’s tournament. Im leads, but his margin is thin and the players behind him are not going away. That is the honest summary heading into the weekend.
The most interesting subplot is whether a name like Schauffele or Spieth makes a charge from outside the top fifteen. Both carry enough win probability to stay relevant. Both are capable of producing a round that resets the entire leaderboard. Nevertheless, they will need something special just to get back into range by Sunday morning.
For now, Im is the name to watch. But the 2026 Valspar Championship will almost certainly look different by the time Saturday’s round ends. That matters — because in a wide-open tournament, the entire back nine on Sunday becomes a flip of the coin. Whoever stays patient at Innisbrook this weekend earns the right to compete on Sunday. The field is deep, the margins are tight, and the Valspar Championship is set up for a chaotic finish.
Follow the live scoring at the PGA Tour leaderboard and dig into the full model at DataGolf.
BetTheRent publishes analysis and commentary for informational purposes only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or sports betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.