Sungjae Im Leads, But Nobody Has Run Away From the Pack Yet
The Valspar Championship 2026 is shaping up to be one of those tournaments where everything is still up for grabs after one round. Sungjae Im shot a clean 64 and sits alone at the top. However, the leaderboard is bunched tight behind him. No one has separated themselves. That means Round 2 could completely reshape things.
Round 1 Recap: Valspar Championship 2026
Im’s 64 was the round of the day. Seven under through 18 holes at Innisbrook is a serious number. Still, he leads by only one shot. That margin is razor thin at this course.
Brandt Snedeker and David Lipsky both shot to six under. Snedeker shot a 65. Lipsky posted a 69, which means he was already in the clubhouse before things got moving. Meanwhile, Davis Thompson and Doug Ghim sit at five under after rounds of 66 and 68 respectively.
Big Names Further Back
Xander Schauffele, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth, and Ben Griffin all sit at three under. That puts them four shots off the lead. However, at a course like Innisbrook, four shots is absolutely manageable. Notably, Schauffele actually leads the probability board despite sitting four back. His top-10 chance sits at 54 percent. Fitzpatrick is right behind him at 52.8 percent. That tells you how little this leaderboard has sorted itself out.
| Player | Position | Score | R1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Im, Sungjae | 1 | -7 | 64 |
| Lipsky, David | T2 | -6 | 69 |
| Snedeker, Brandt | T2 | -6 | 65 |
| Ghim, Doug | T4 | -5 | 68 |
| Thompson, Davis | T4 | -5 | 66 |
| Coody, Pierceson | T6 | -4 | 67 |
| Horschel, Billy | T6 | -4 | 67 |
| Putnam, Andrew | T6 | -4 | 67 |
| Blanchet, Chandler | T9 | -3 | 69 |
| Bridgeman, Jacob | T9 | -3 | 68 |
| Castillo, Ricky | T9 | -3 | 68 |
| Fishburn, Patrick | T9 | -3 | 68 |
| Fitzpatrick, Matt | T9 | -3 | 68 |
| Griffin, Ben | T9 | -3 | 70 |
| Hojgaard, Nicolai | T9 | -3 | 69 |
Where the Tournament Stands Now
The live leaderboard has Im in front, but everyone within four shots still has a real path. Round 2 at Valspar 2026 could look completely different by Friday evening.
| Player | Position | Score | Back |
|---|---|---|---|
| Im, Sungjae | 1 | -7 | 0 |
| Lipsky, David | T2 | -6 | 1 |
| Snedeker, Brandt | T2 | -6 | 1 |
| Ghim, Doug | T4 | -5 | 2 |
| Thompson, Davis | T4 | -5 | 2 |
| Coody, Pierceson | T6 | -4 | 3 |
| Horschel, Billy | T6 | -4 | 3 |
| Putnam, Andrew | T6 | -4 | 3 |
| Blanchet, Chandler | T9 | -3 | 4 |
| Bridgeman, Jacob | T9 | -3 | 4 |
| Castillo, Ricky | T9 | -3 | 4 |
| Fishburn, Patrick | T9 | -3 | 4 |
Probability Landscape
This is where it gets interesting. Im leads the actual leaderboard. However, Schauffele leads the win probability board at 10.6 percent. Im sits at 9.9 percent. Fitzpatrick is third at 8.6 percent.
That gap between Im and Schauffele tells you something. The people tracking this tournament believe the stronger long-term players have an edge. A one-round lead at Innisbrook does not automatically make you the favorite.
| Player | Position | Score | Back | Win % | Top 5 % | Top 10 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schauffele, Xander | T9 | -3 | 4 | 10.6% | 37.5% | 54.0% |
| Im, Sungjae | 1 | -7 | 0 | 9.9% | 36.3% | 53.3% |
| Fitzpatrick, Matt | T9 | -3 | 4 | 8.6% | 35.1% | 52.8% |
| Thompson, Davis | T4 | -5 | 2 | 5.8% | 26.8% | 43.0% |
| Bridgeman, Jacob | T9 | -3 | 4 | 5.7% | 26.1% | 42.4% |
| Griffin, Ben | T9 | -3 | 4 | 3.8% | 21.2% | 37.2% |
| Spieth, Jordan | T9 | -3 | 4 | 3.5% | 19.9% | 34.6% |
| Coody, Pierceson | T6 | -4 | 3 | 3.3% | 18.3% | 32.5% |
| Lipsky, David | T2 | -6 | 1 | 3.1% | 20.2% | 35.8% |
| Hojgaard, Nicolai | T9 | -3 | 4 | 2.9% | 16.6% | 30.9% |
| Snedeker, Brandt | T2 | -6 | 1 | 2.9% | 16.7% | 30.5% |
| Rai, Aaron | T9 | -3 | 4 | 2.8% | 16.9% | 30.8% |
| Ghim, Doug | T4 | -5 | 2 | 2.6% | 17.2% | 32.2% |
| Smalley, Alex | T9 | -3 | 4 | 2.6% | 15.5% | 28.4% |
| Hovland, Viktor | T37 | -1 | 6 | 2.5% | 15.0% | 27.9% |
| Castillo, Ricky | T9 | -3 | 4 | 2.4% | 14.7% | 27.0% |
| Cantlay, Patrick | T37 | -1 | 6 | 1.9% | 12.7% | 23.9% |
| Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus | T9 | -3 | 4 | 1.7% | 11.1% | 21.8% |
| Conners, Corey | T22 | -2 | 5 | 1.6% | 11.7% | 22.6% |
| Horschel, Billy | T6 | -4 | 3 | 1.5% | 10.0% | 20.0% |
| Blanchet, Chandler | T9 | -3 | 4 | 1.4% | 10.2% | 20.8% |
| Putnam, Andrew | T6 | -4 | 3 | 1.4% | 10.4% | 21.5% |
| Smith, Jordan | T22 | -2 | 5 | 1.2% | 9.6% | 19.7% |
| Ford, David | T22 | -2 | 5 | 1.0% | 8.0% | 17.0% |
Names Still Lurking
Viktor Hovland and Patrick Cantlay both sit at one under. That puts them six back. However, both carry enough pedigree and course versatility to climb fast. Do not forget about them heading into the weekend.
Market Opportunities
One matchup stands out right now. Billy Horschel sits at minus-120 against Andrew Putnam on DraftKings. However, the fair odds on that line sit closer to plus-106. That is a meaningful gap. Both players shot 67 in Round 1. Still, the books have pushed Horschel as the heavy favorite. The numbers suggest that price is inflated.
| Player | Opponent | Book | Odds | DG Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hor |